College Eye for the NBA Guy: West Regional, Part I

Hey hey, Duke undergrad here. I've closely watched all but a few Duke games the last two years.

McRoberts (lefty) analysis:
Shot: His shot is the flattest line drive imaginable. He doesn't take mid-range jumpers often, although he can knock them down occasionally. He takes a three or two every few games, and usually misses. He often relies on a jump hook that looks extremely awkward, and is semi-reliable. Free-throw shooting is questionable at best, at 66.4% (also a line drive).
Moves: He gets TERRIBLE position in the post: his signature move is to get the ball on the elbow, try to back his man down, fail, pick up his dribble, head/pump fake 8 times while pivoting around and around, and try to lean and get a lay-up or jump hook. Usually this does not work. I really think his post position is the main reason he is not more of an offensive threat. He has no post moves and he gets bad position: bad combination.
Rebounding: Ugh. You'd think, with a 6-11 athletic body, that he could dominate the boards. But he hangs around outside the blocks, and simply doesn't bother boxing out. I think he's CAPABLE of rebounding well, but he just doesn't. Poor effort. He's averaging 7.8 rebounds on a team without any good rebounders whatsoever (everyone else is hella short and Brian Zoubek is the spawn of Shawn Bradley). Although, you could say that his lack of defensive rebounding can be attributed at least partly to his propensity of attacking the penetrator and trying to block his shot.
Athleticism: See, this is where it gets confusing. You can see his great athleticism on alley-oop dunks, of which he has at LEAST two a game. They're jaw-dropping and impressive, and show his natural skills well. HOWEVA, it seems like his athleticism is questionable elsewhen. Looking at him, he can jump high, but he seems to have little quickness. Also, he doesn't seem to get off the floor very quickly at all (a la Shawn Marion). His lack of quickness is frustrating on the offense, as he cannot create his own shot very often, without a wide-open lane.
Passing: Good passing big man. Pretty good vision, has the ability to dish off very creative passes (behind the back, etc.) He used to be a point guard before a growth spurt (in high school), so he has very good ball-handling skills for a big man, and a good eye for assists. However, the offense is never run through him, so it's tough to judge his potential as a (present) Chris Webber or Brad Miller type.
Ball-handling: As said previously, he has good open-court ball-handling skills for a big man (he's gone behind the back multiple times in the past and sometimes he brings the ball up, spurning Paulus). But his confidence in these skills leave him unprepared for the reality that all guards have naturally quick hands and his skills as a big man cannot overcome them. He's good for 2.5 turnovers a game, far too much for someone who honestly does not touch the ball that often. Most of these are on bad passes (he overvalues his passing ability, as well) or ball-handling mistakes. Being Duke, he doesn't often get offensive fouls called on him.
Defense: I'd say he's usually a pretty good defensive player. He almost always challenges a penetrating guard and always goes for a block, no matter against whom. He gets 'em a reasonable amount of the time, at 2.6 pg. Pretty good in that respect. He's decent at man-to-man defense, but can occasionally get lost in a zone (probably due to lack of attention) and lose a man. Also lately, he's taken to lots of foul trouble. He doesn't seem to consider how many fouls he has before challenging a shot, and that often leads to another foul and his subsequent benching.

Summary: SO FREAKING AWKWARD TO WATCH!! Jaw-dropping dunks, great passes sometimes, can be a highlight machine. Good blocker, as well. But he's terribly inconsistent, has no offensive repertoire, has no will to rebound, and does not seem to have a great team attitude. Plus, he's a real dick around campus, but that's sort of expected. Turnover-prone, and lacks the quickness to create his own shots. Risky shooter. Comparable to...Okay, so this may or may not be skin-prejudiced, but I really think he's kind of comparable to Darko (current, not 2003 ideal Darko). Blocks shots, is white, and is generally unimpressive at the offensive side of the floor. Cept he doesn't rebound and can pass okay. I dunno if Darko can do that.

How's THAT for some in-depth analysis? I can't wait to bring this out when you mention Greg Paulus or Brian Zoubek.

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Strongly disagree with Brandon Rush, he's really turned himself into an outstanding defensive player (watch his jobs on Kevin Durant the past two matchups - he's been excellent against him). He's one of the top 2-3 wing defenders in the entire country, and the best defensive player on the best defensive team in the country.

Rush is sort of a Raja Bell type player to me, capable of scoring but not hunting for his shot agressively and yet a very strong wing defender and rebounder. He's going to play for a long time in the NBA, but I doubt he's every a 20ppg player. 15ppg / 6 rpg with killer defense is about what I'd expect from him.

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I have to agree with the other reader regarding Brandon Rush. You can look at various aspects of his game to complain about, but not his defense. That's probably the BEST thing he brings to a team.

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It's already been covered, but Rush is the one guy KU can put on the opponents best scorer from PG to PF and know he'll give him fits.
Great wing defender.
That's saying a lot on a team that prides itself on it's defense.

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You have vastly overrated Julian Wright. He will wind up being another James Posey, and I don't think you'd draft a guy in the top 5 for that. Brandan Wright is the "Wright Brother" who I see as an NBA star: he reminds me of a slightly more muscular Roy Hinson (pre-injuries). Brandon Rush? He'll be as good as his confidence lets him be. Someone who people aren't yet talking of as an NBA stud is Brook Lopez, but they should be: he has the mobility and quickness off the floor that could make him a Tyson Chandler clone

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DRKNOW -

Julian is almost the complete package. He in no way compares to Brandon Wright (a true low post f/c). The only thing JW needs to add to his repertoire is a consistent three-point shot. He's already knocking them down with relative ease just inside the line. But as mjd stated, he's an exciting, all-around talent. Sometimes he gets too fancy with his dribbling and passing (but that's something that isn't frowned up in the NBA).

He won't make an immediate major impact when he makes it to the NBA. He'll be more of a glue guy in the beginning. Julian is very selfless, and loves to make assists, blocks and get rebounds. He'll be a reliable defender, and coaches will love him. He just loves to play.

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the timberwolves should make a serious consideration to draft arron afflalo. i have watched this kid play and he has really impressed me a lot. he is the answer for the missing role in the wolves team.

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