Interesting Tim Cowlishaw column today about the issue of going pro. We hear all the time that kids have to strike when the iron is hot, lest they get injured or their stock drop. And while that Shaun Livingston gore-fest is still fresh in everyone's mind, it's the latter one that's the bigger concern. The conventional wisdom is that Joakim Noah hurt his draft prospects this year, and cost himself major cash by not coming out after last year. Cowlishaw, though, begs to differ, claiming that "private workouts would have identified the flaws in Noah's game." This is wishful thinking; every summer, we see flaws glossed over as "room for improvement."
Cowlishaw's better point is that, all in all, draft position doesn't matter all that much. Based on current mocks, Noah seems to have cost himself "a little more than $2 million over four years":
The fifth pick last year – Atlanta's Shelden Williams of Duke – will make about $11.4 million over his first four years. The 10th pick in this year's draft will make about $9.1 million for four years.Obviously, not all lottery picks end up being elite players, and some don't even stick in the league. But his basic premise--that draft picks should probably have a whole career of money making ahead of them--just isn't acknowledged enough. If Noah is a total bust, well, that couple million might have come in handy. Generally, though, a tall guy with energy will almost always be able to grab a contract somewhere with someone. And this tall guy will also be able to say he won back-to-back NCAA championships.
In the NBA, players earn their big money after that first contract. That's when they have proven their value at the elite level and get those first maximum contracts.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-04-2007 @ 2:34PM
PurdueMatt05 said...
Isn't there something to be said for maturing as a young man and getting an education. So that one would be able to handle the difficulties of the real world more effectively once in the NBA?
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4-04-2007 @ 2:49PM
Mike said...
Why is he being compared to the 5th pick in last year's draft? All indications are that Noah would have been #1 or #2 last year after his MOP performance.
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4-04-2007 @ 3:05PM
Miss Gossip said...
I disagree with Cowlishaw's "glossing over" treatment of the money.
First of all, the chance of someone like Noah being a bust is very real, and like you said, the $2 mil difference on the rookie contract would definitely come heavily into play there.
Secondly, even if he ends up doing well under his rookie contract and signs a nice max-type deal afterwards, you still have to think that he's robbed himself of one year of NBA playing time. He will eventually get old and decline, or want to retire. Now he'll be doing that one year sooner. That's one year of max-salary that he won't get. If he's going to have a 20-year career, then maybe that one extra year is insignificant as a percentage of his total lifetime earnings. But what's the typical length of an NBA career? Probably short enough to make one year of salary significant.
I don't disagree with the fact that the soft value of an NCAA championship might be enough to outweigh all of the money concerns. You can't put a price on that. I just don't buy the "it's a wash" argument on the money.
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4-05-2007 @ 7:53AM
Stacey Franchise said...
While I'm not actively rooting for a top-flight college star to ruin his knee and eventually die in poverty.... once it happens, this argument is dead, dead, dead.
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4-05-2007 @ 9:48AM
breadcity said...
Where would Noah be now if he had gone 1 or 2? Boston? Charlotte? Some really bad team, regardless. Going a little later in the draft this year, he has a much better chance of ending up with a winning group. Secondly, Noah wants to get rich (of course), but it's not the only priority in his entire life. I think that's something that should be admired, not criticized.
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