PLEASE DON'T DRAFT ME: Rudy Fernandez

PLEASE DON'T DRAFT ME looks at prospects whose draft stocks are high and/or rising... but probably shouldn't be.

Remember Fran Vasquez? He was the Muresan look-a-like Magic GM Otis Smith spent a lottery pick on two years ago. Vasquez, a Spaniard, decided he didn't want to play for an NBA rookie paycheck and took $10 million for four years with FC Barcelona. Orlando looked like idiots, Vasquez looked shady, European prospects earned another perception hurdle... a lose-lose for everyone involved.

Rudy Fernandez is different than Vasquez. He's not a lottery pick, for one thing -- probably owing to his age (22) and position (shooting guard). He's talented as hell (ask everyone who played Spain at the 2006 Worlds) and filled with vim and vigor, all the traits you could want but usually don't get with these (typically raw and unsure) hot Euro prospects. With mocks placing Rudy #20 and beyond, you think he'd be a value pick, a safe bet.

Capitalism has other ideas.

A report from DraftExpress sets the table:

[S]oon after the Treviso camp finished, one of the hottest rumors in Spain was European powerhouse Winterthur F.C. Barcelona being relatively close to sign Rudy. Those rumors have only intensified as of late. According to the newspaper Sport, Rudy would sign a multi-year deal that would pay him between 800,000 to a million Euros (1.07 to 1.36 million dollars) per year after taxes. Convert it to dollars and calculate the taxes and you will easily realize that, short-term, a first-round (and only two-year guaranteed) rookie contract in the 15-30 range has no business competing against this kind of money.

Fernandez currently plays for Joventut, where his contract ends next summer. His buyout should he venture to the NBA this summer is (reportedly) $2.2 million. The rookie contract for the #20 pick is less than $1 million. An NBA team can only pay a max of $500,000 to satisfy overseas buyout clauses... which means Fernandez would earn negative $700,000 to jump to the NBA next season. If he takes the Barcelona deal, he'll make about $2.5 million next year (assuming Barcelona pays his Joventut buyout -- which it can, unlike an NBA team).

Of course, Fernandez could finish his contract with Joventut next season and come to the NBA thereafter, forfeiting about $1.5 million in potential salary for three years (and possibly more that fourth year). To take this route, though, he'd really have to want to come to the NBA. A million and a half is a lot of money. For a team drafting late first round, is that risk -- that Rudy will choose America over $$$ -- one you want to take?

All told, Rudy is one of the more talented guards in the draft. But if you can't get him to the NBA, what's the point?