5 Things to Keep an Eye on: Spurs at Hornets, Game 5

In another of our continuing series, five things to keep an eye out for tonight in the Spurs-Hornets Western Conference Semifinals Game 5 this evening.

1. Expect The Unexpected: I've worked this game around in my head for the last day, and I still can't get an answer out of it. It's like trying to get a clear choice out of a busted Magic Eight Ball. I can't even get a "Reply Hazy, Try Again." Nothing would surprise me tonight. A Spurs blowout? Of course! They're the champs and they've figured out the Hornets. A Hornets blowout? Well, you saw the first two games, didn't you? A Hornets breakaway in the last five minutes? That's what happens when you're old and slow. A Hornets meltdown in the last five minutes? That's what happens when you're young and inexperienced! A Spurs buzzer-beater? There's a reason Robert Horry, Michael Finley, and Brent Barry play for the Spurs. Armageddon? Why not? There's really no way to predict what will come out tonight in New Orleans.

2. Duncan Go Nuts: Maybe it was just the flu. Maybe the only thing holding Tim Duncan back in Games 1 and 2 were the chills and fever he reportedly had, and it had nothing to do with the stifling and effective double teams by the Hornets. The most likely answer is that it was a little bit of both. Either way, the Spurs have figured a way around that trick. By pulling Manu Ginobili to Duncan's post side and using him as the entry passer, they've presented the Hornets with their two worst matchups at once. Bring the help defender, and Ginobili's either got a three or the step on a drive if the help tries to close out. Don't bring the help defender ... well, let's just say you want to bring the help defender. The Hornets may have to try going to zone tonight and bringing Bonzi Wells over from the weak side block to provide pressure. Most importantly, if Tyson Chandler is guarding Duncan, he cannot do what he did in the last game and give Tim Duncan the baseline. That's just suicide. And it's not painless.

3. West Is South: David West has been punked. Fabricio Oberto has gotten under his skin, and when West has kept his cool long enough to use his considerable talent advantage to attack Oberto, Tim Duncan has been waiting. The Spurs have decided from the very get go to shut down West's long range game and work in. They haven't allowed him his 17 footers where he's very sure of, and now when he does get them, he doubts himself. In the first two games he torched the Spurs by going to the rim time and time again. But they've slowly cut off more and more off of his offense to the point where he's a shell of the All-Star he was through Game 2 of this season. If the Hornets are going to regain momentum headed back to San Antonio and avoid the death grip, West is going to have to flex his muscles, keep his head, and knock down some shots. They can survive two games without West contributing major points. They can't survive three.

4. Winning The War By Drawing The Battle: The Spurs aren't averaging that many fewer turnovers since they returned from New Orleans. They're just causing more. The turnover differential in the first two games for the Spurs was +13. The two games in San Antonio? 0. All even. They're pretty much accepting that Chris Paul and the Hornets' defense are going to create turnovers. But instead of just accepting them as fact, they're fighting fire with fire. The Hornets have to hang on to the ball and make San Antonio pay for their uncharacteristic carelessness to combat the Spurs surge.

5. Close Out, Close Out, Close Out: Both teams' coaches will have been hammering this all day long. If you stop the long ball in rotation on either club, they're without their mojo. The Hornets need Morris Peterson and Peja Stojakovic draining corners on the Chris Paul kick out, and the Spurs need Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen to consider their nearly ridiculous shooting spree to provide the boost against New Orleans' effective interior defense on the drives of Tony Parker. As simple as it sounds, whoever can create and hit shots tonight will probably be the victor, as close as these two teams are.