The Rotation: Spurs' Experience Can Overcome Hornets' Home Court in Game 7

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The Rotation is a weekly study on the NBA by one of our All-Star voices. In rotation this week is Brett Edwards.

The playoff series between the Hornets and the Spurs has been consistently one-sided so far -- the home side. The local team has won each of the six games by at least 11 points, the first time such a statistical anomaly has occurred in NBA history. I think that's likely to change tonight though, because for all of the Hornets talent, the Spurs' collective experience is likely to be the deciding factor.

It's been argued that experience is overrated in the NBA playoffs, and Chris Paul was used as the poster boy and case study to prove the argument to be true. But playing well individually and winning home games is one thing.

The Hornets have really been the better team this entire series. They've largely stuck to what has worked for them all season, while the Spurs have had to make some substantial adjustments from game to game. But now the Hornets will have to prove they can evolve: For an upstart team to eliminate a team with a ring in a Game 7 -- even in your own building -- is something else entirely.

It's not that I don't respect what the Hornets have done so far. The contortions they've put the Spurs through are impressive.

San Antonio has used three different starting lineups in the six games of this series. Manu Ginobili, the NBA's Sixth Man of the Year, is now a starter, while Michael Finley, who started most of the year, is on the bench. Kurt Thomas has gone to the pine in favor of Fabricio Oberto, and wasn't even the first big off the bench in Game 6: that honor went to Robert Horry. Coach Popovich (who has traditionally been stubborn about changes this late in the season) has been making lineup changes like crazy just to give the Hornets a different look as the series has gone on.

Defensively, the adjustments from the Spurs have been just as noticeable. Bruce Bowen started the series defending Chris Paul -- if you want to call it that. He's been switched to guard Peja Stojakovic, a matchup that's been much more favorable for San Antonio. And after David West poured in a career playoff high 38 points in Game 5, Tim Duncan, for the first time all series, was given the defensive task of guarding him in Game 6. This adjustment was huge, as Timmy was able to hold West to just 10 points on 4-14 shooting.

Even with all of those adjustments, the Spurs merely find themselves facing an elimination game on the road in an arena they haven't won in all season. Experience is their only asset heading into Game 7, and I think it will be the one that decides the game.

We've seen other young teams push more veteran and experienced teams to an elimination game, only to crumble under the pressure. Sure, the upstart Hawks forced the veteran Celtics into a Game 7. But while Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen may not have any championship rings, they do have plenty of pressure-packed playoff games under their belts. So it wasn't surprising that the Hawks couldn't stand up to the pressure, and as a result were absolutely crushed in the deciding game of the series. This did happen on the Celtics' home court, an advantage the Spurs won't have tonight.

An example of experience being the deciding factor on the road in a series occurred in 2002, when the two-time defending champion Lakers had to go to Sacramento and play the Kings in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. The less-experienced Kings looked like the better team most of the series, and might have wrapped it up earlier if not for some of Robert Horry's heroics in Game 4. With Game 7 in the Kings' building, it looked like they had a pretty good shot of ending the Lakers' quest for their third straight title. But as Rasheed Wallace would say, a, um, certain body part got tighter and tighter, and the team couldn't make shots or free throws when it mattered.

I think we're going to see another sad group of upstarts, hands glumly on their hips, falling just short again tonight.

No One Outside of Texas Wants the Spurs to Win

Experience breeds contempt, as Shakespeare maybe said. An ESPN poll asked who you would want to see in the Conference Finals. And based on the over 20,000 responses, the majority of people in every single state outside of Texas will be rooting for the Hornets tonight. Even in Texas, 47% of the votes went to the team from New Orleans.

[HT: InHistoric.com, via BallHype]

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

5-19-2008 @ 11:52AM

The Cooler said...

Reality check, the spurs are old and done. The spurs need to get younger and more athletic. Too bad, they let scola and beno get away. The hardest fact to acknowledge, to revamp the team to keep pace with the up and coming younger athletic teams. The hornets will win because they are at home,younger, and more talented.

5-19-2008 @ 12:11PM

Kelsey said...

I think being the underdog team (if you have to call the hottest team that) like the Hornets will be beneficial. The pressure to win will be entirely on the Sterns. They'll make mental mistakes and if the Hornets get ahead right away it'll take away their confidents. Without their home crowd cheering them on I think they will lose tonight.
Pressure+being down= lose for the Sterns.
The Hornets have to take command of the game right away. Go Hornets!

5-19-2008 @ 12:15PM

Chris said...

From the Express News in San Antonio (via Hornets247):

"Game 7 road victories are scarce, of course. Monday's will be the 100th in NBA playoff history. According to the Web site, nbagame7.com, the home team has won 79 of those. There have been 20 Game 7s in the Western Conference semifinals. The road team has won only four times."

Obviously the Spurs are a very experienced team, having won something like 4 championships in the last 9 years. But these Hornets really aren't you're typical upstart. Not only did this team win 56 games this year, but they had the second best record against Western Conference playoff teams. Plus, thanks to the media, they have a huge chip on their shoulder for being slept on all year.

You said it yourself Brett; the Hornets have been the better team this series. And "the local team has won each of the six games by at least 11 points". Also check out this link:

http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/preview?gameId=280519003

The Hornets are not going to let the pressure of this game get to them. I'm sure it'll be closer than the other three games in New Orleans, but there's really no reason to think that they won't win this game.

5-19-2008 @ 12:27PM

Gerber said...

There was a time the Spurs would've won on talent alone. I grudginly admired that team. These days, the quality of their play will either be judged as "shrewd, cagey and experienced" or "they flop and cheap-shot and no longer play straight up basketball". Probably not a whole lot of middle ground there. If the Hornets can keep their composure and not get distracted by S.A's 'extracurriculars', they have a good shot to advance. Should be an interesting game.

5-19-2008 @ 12:34PM

Evan said...

It is unsurprising that everyone outside San Antonio despises the Spurs. They don't even have the virtue of most NBA dynasties: being fun to watch. While Duncan is undeniably a great human being and one of the greatest power forwards to play the game, his teammates are have a predilection for flopping about (Oberto, Ginobili); have taken cheap shots on some of the game's more popular figures (Bowen, Horry); or date one of the most desireable women without giving us any reason to root for them in doing so (Parker, who is a flop artist, a whiner, and something of a wuss; go back and watch footage of his over-the-top "injury" time after cutting up Nash's nose in a collision). Put it all together with the team's small market and habit of knocking off far more popular opposition, plus media love that ignores gigantic question marks surrounding their last championship (a corruptly-officiated game AND the devastating suspensions), and it really is a perfect storm of hatred.

5-19-2008 @ 12:44PM

Scott said...

I don't see how that Laker/Kings series can serve as the archetypal representation of the an upstart vs. a champion. The nucleus of that Sacramento team was filled with grizzled vets. Similar in composition to this years Celtics squad, more so than the Hornets. Not a ton of playoff experience, but that's overlooked due to the magnitude of their combined reps as seasoned pros.

Also, I seem to remember a little controversy in game 6 of that series that probably had more momentum shifting importance than even home court advantage. Bennett Salvator had a bigger impact on that series than anyone on the court. I'm not even sure if that's debated at this point.

Kind of a weak example to build your argument on.

5-19-2008 @ 5:56PM

Jos� said...

I hope those fans in New Orleans will sit down for this game. They can be distracting as they stand randomly throughout the game, particularly in the courtside area

5-19-2008 @ 7:09PM

Marion Hill said...

How could the Hornets be the better team in this series...when the Spurs beat the Hornets in SA with 3 double-digits wins. Yes...the Spurs did have to make adjustments but they worked and created decisive victories!! Give Popovich credit for being flexible enough to make changes in order to give themselves a chance to win the series.

5-19-2008 @ 7:43PM

Andrew said...

I HATE the Spurs... I like the Suns. I go anywhere that Shaq goes. I liked Miami and the Lakers at one time, just because Shaquille O'Neal was there. GO SUNS!