Will Grizz Skip Kevin Love to Nab David Lee?

A few folks in the know have reported the possibility of Memphis-New York swap which would send David Lee and Malik Rose to the Grizzlies in exchange for the #5 pick and Brian Cardinal's ugly contract. Andy Katz, an ESPN college hoops virtuoso, pressed this rumor a few times Tuesday, including in this blog post.

The theory is that the Knicks would use picks #5 and #6 on Danilo Gallinari and either Russell Westbrook or Eric Gordon. My interest comes from the Memphis angle. Many mocks have sent Kevin Love to the Grizz at #5, where he'd project to be an awesome rebounder and nifty, efficient offensive player ... which is exactly what Lee has been for three seasons.

So, if you're Memphis, why do pull this trigger? Lee's up for an extension; you don't have to give it to him this summer, but he'd be a restricted free agent next July in that case. He has tremendous value around the league, and will fetch a pretty penny. Losing Cardinal has value on the surface, but The Custodian is only signed through 2009-10. I mean, is Memphis really going to make a big free agent splash one year from now? I don't think so.

The #5 pick will make less than $8 million the next two seasons. Lee will likely make the same (he's ultra-cheap for 2008-09, likely pricey in 2009-10 and beyond). Cardinal will make $13 million, and Rose is owed $7.6 million for one more year. So, for Memphis, the opportunity to save a whopping $6 million over the next two seasons is enough incentive to own the rights to the 25-year-old Lee over the 19-year-old Love? This makes no sense.

(It's brilliant for the Knicks; as sweet as Lee is, he'll get expensive at just the wrong time, and the backcourt is in such a'shambles parting with Lee is worth the potential fix two top-6 picks can offer. Also: Cardinal has a magical "expiring in 2010" contract. Beautiful.)