Does Spain-USA Even Matter?

The attention on Saturday's United State-Spain basketball match in Beijing is already reaching high levels, and understandably so. Spain has as talented a roster as you'll find beyond Team USA, with four players who will be in the NBA in 2008-09 (Pau Gasol, Marc Gasol, Jose Calderon, Rudy Fernandez), two more who played NBA ball last season but left for Europe (Jorge Garbajosa, Juan Carlos Navarro), and a potential top-3 pick in the 2009 draft (Ricky Rubio). Of course Team USA has, um, 12 NBA players. But Spain's good.

But does this game even matter? This is pool play, remember. There is little immediate benefit in winning Saturday's game for either team. The two teams will finish 1-2 in Group B regardless of anything else that happens -- Germany, Greece and China all rate at 1-2; none can capture a two-seed due to various losses to the top dogs assuming reasonable results. (Like the U.S. beating Germany.)

Basically, the impact of Saturday's battle is this: the winner opens the medal round against Group A's fourth-place team, which looks to be Russia. The loser gets Croatia or Argentina. Russia, the reigning European champion, might be every bit as tough as the others. Really, all three teams are good enough to beat either Team USA or Spain in the right conditions. There is no easy out here.

There is one potentially bigger benefit of finishing first in Group B: you avoid a potential semifinal battle with awe-striking Lithuania, which means you have a better probability of medalling. Of course, medal isn't the goal for either team: both squads want the gold. Losing in the finals would be as painful as losing in the semis.

But while there's little tangible benefit to winning tomorrow, neither team will be playing to lose. (Which is to say neither team is the 2006-07 Celtics.) The game will be fought for pride and spirits and confidence, which could very well be important in its own way (unmeasurable though it may be). I don't suspect Team USA will want to allow the Spaniards any glint of hope, nor will Spain be content to lay down and accept domination. (Rar.) So, we'll probably get a game where it seems something magnificent is at stake, which for our purpose as spectators works all the same as something magnificent actually being at stake.