
FanHouse's Tom Ziller argues his ranking of the top 50 players in the NBA.
Gilbert Arenas doesn't fit any prototype at hand. That, as we all know, leads to vast misunderstanding. Look at his field goal percentage and -- "Hey, it's Starbury for a new age." Wrong, absolutely wrong. Gil is more like an elite scorer -- Kobe, LeBron, 'Melo, old T-Mac -- who just happens to be short enough and a gifted enough passer to be a point guard.
Arenas' scoring output is truly outrageous -- he's gone over 25 points per 36 minutes twice already, something only four guys did last season. Gil does it two ways: he uses a ton of possessions, and he scores efficiently. It won't show up in that old FG% you're trotting out, but that's why we don't use FG%. It tells us nothing.
Arenas takes a metric ton of threes, more than seven per game in his last full season ('06-07). That almost 40% of all his FGAs tied up beyond the arc. He hits them at a solid rate (36% career), which susses out to an average of 1.08 points per three-point FGA. The average last season for all offense across the league was 1.06. So Gil's "lowest percentage shot" -- the threeballs he tosses up seven times a night and misses 65% of the time ... those are more efficient than half of NBA teams.
The rest of Arenas' efficiency comes from the free throw line, where he has a timeshare. Gil averaged 10 FTAs a night in '05-06, and 9.7 in '06-07. He's a career 81% shooter from there. Every trip to the line for two FTAs offers up roughly 1.62 points for the Wizards. That's nice for most players. When you draw free throws so effortlessly, and it is legitimately the second biggest part of your arsenal -- that's a massive boon to your team's chances.
But isn't that sort of weird, how Arenas lives at the three-point line, but also draws a ton of fouls? It speaks to how Gil understands NBA offense -- possibly subconsciously -- and realizes the two most efficient shots in the NBA besides the dunk are free throws and threes. So, he shoots and drives. The mid-range game can be valuable to bust zones and foil pack-it-in schemes. But on the whole, against NBA defense and playing NBA rules, threes are going to be open and the refs will get you to the line if you attack.
Folks ignore Gil's play-making for others. Six assists a game is nothing to sneeze at. When you adjust for pace, Arenas is every bit the passer Allen Iverson is, and just about there with Tracy McGrady. And that's passing -- as I've said, Gil scores a ton more per minute on more efficient shooting.
We're ignoring '07-08, of course, a disastrous campaign of frustration and pain for Arenas. I'm assuming he'll bounce back. You don't go from second-round pick to outsider MVP candidate without having a mess of hard-workin' bones under your skin. Gil works like few others, and I suspect he'll continue to be an All-Star mainstay ... this time without paying kids to stuff ballots.
NBA Top 50
No. 50, Andris Biedrins, Warriors




















Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-17-2008 @ 12:47PM
JakeTheSnake said...
Jinx!
Reply
9-17-2008 @ 1:51PM
ecash94 said...
After all these knee surgeries, is Arenas going to be able to keep getting to the bucket? Looks like he might need to develop his mid-range game...
Reply
9-17-2008 @ 3:22PM
JayBone said...
I sort of disagreed having him this high on the list. And that was before I heard about his third knee surgery... Maybe this time's the charm?
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9-17-2008 @ 4:23PM
sook said...
ziller, you may not know a lot about basketball but you have to understand that is NOT ALL ABOUT STATS.
That would be the only reason for you to put gilbert this high.
He was injured pretty much this whole yr and you put him this high?
When he couldn't even beat Lebron with Antwon and Caron at his side?
Ziller, your basketball knowledge is seriously flawed.
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9-17-2008 @ 11:14PM
David said...
Sook, if Ziller thought basketball was all about stats, he wouldn't have put Battier ahead of Artest. Or Kevin Durant over Rudy Gay. Or a LOT of players over Michael Redd.
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9-18-2008 @ 6:01AM
Dave E said...
Sorry, have read through your arguments before I decide if you are right or wrong. Agent 0 did try to play last season - you HAVE to take that into account. He did NOT make their team better. He also has this BIG black mark of trying to play on a stuffed knee. He tries to play, we don't excuse him for that. We are looking at 50 best players in NBA now, Gilbert has hardly played, and when he has he hasn't been right. His self-awareness re injuries and ability to break the little team chemistry Washington had last season means to me he ain't worth this ranking. I'd put him in the "come back when you're ready to play" file.
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9-18-2008 @ 12:40PM
Carlo Sexron said...
I find this list compelling, but this is the first outrageous call. Anyone could put up his numbers if they shot as much. Not even a top 50 player, and is not that close.
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