NBA Top 50: Al Jefferson (No. 18)

FanHouse's Tom Ziller argues his ranking of the top 50 players in the NBA.

Just Al. Not Albert or Alfred or Alfredo or Allen or Alasteir. Just Al Jefferson. Simple name, simple game. </plaschke>

In all seriousness (regrettably*), Jefferson's game is remarkably basic. Al's massive and strong, a Rottweiler in the post. He rebounds, he gets buckets. He does not smile. He is a young Karl Malone, in the flesh. Honest to blog, the comparison is striking in its completeness ... as you'll see below the fold.
Boom.



At age 23, the players are almost identical by the numbers. Malone has a slight scoring advantage, an even more slight shooting advantage, and gets to the stripe more frequently (which you can't see here: Malone is about +2 FGAs per 36 minutes). Jefferson rebounds a chunk more per possession (+2.5% in rebound rate), blocks more shots (+0.7 per 36 minutes), does not foul nearly as much and shoots free throws much better (72% vs Malone-at-23's 60%). Those factors give Jefferson a substanital PER lead (the blocks/rebounds would seem to matter a lot there).

This doesn't mean Jefferson will be Malone or better. This simply and solely means that, at age 23, Jefferson played better than Malone did at age 23 (which happened to be his second NBA season; Jefferson is entering his fifth).

Malone, of course, became a much better player beginning at age 25 and lasting until age 39. (He was above average at age 40 with the Lakers, but nowhere near his standard.) How did Malone's game improve? He began drawing a metric ton of fouls (10+ FTAs a game for five straight seasons at one point), which boosts his overall shooting efficiency (with a max True Shooting at .612 in '92-93). He learned how the blocks a few shots during his prime. His basic field goal percentage boomed, hitting .562 at age 26 -- extremely high for a high-usage player. He cut his fouls given to a negligible amount. And he became a decent passer.

Does Al have the tools to follow the same path? Again, Jefferson's a Rottweiler ... but Malone was a Rott with the attitude of an evil shark. Malone makes Kurt Thomas look like a sissy. Dude was powerful and aggressive, a violent combination. Is Al powerful and aggressive?

Malone drew fouls because of those basic traits. Jefferson's dreams of superduperstardom depending on developing those characteristics. Heck, Randy Wittman's future depends on Al developing those characteristics. The clay is there, and it's even in a pretty good shape already. Whether it can be molded into a demon, a monster like Malone ... that will decide which way this monument crumbles.


* It's regrettable that I have to be serious, not that Jefferson's game is basic. Because by basic I mean Basically Awesome.