On the 'Curse' of Too Many Free Throws

Rick Bonnell of the Charlotte Observer published some notes on the free throw shooting woes of the Bobcats. Charlotte was #29 in the NBA at 71.4% from the stripe. (Philadelphia shot 70.6%.) The league average was 75.5%. Bonnell notes Emeka Okafor was a particularly egregious foul shooter, and reports Larry Brown has been working with him on technique heavily this fall. Good news.

Henry Abbott of TrueHoop wonders how much all those misses (many by Okafor) hurt Charlotte last season. The impact is substantial enough, a few wins at the least. But this line drew my FT-fanatical interest:

They would have won games that they lost. Several of them. They would have felt confident and proud. They would have likely been fouled less, and gotten cleaner looks.

The goal for Charlotte -- even Okafor, at 57% from the line -- should not be to get fouled less. Drawing fouls, it ain't beautiful. But it's one of most consistently successful strategies you can have.
Studies have ascertained that you can reasonably estimate the number of shooting fouls drawn by multiplying a player's FTAs by 0.44. (This accounts for the fact there are two FTAs per foul, as well as the presence of the "and-1.") Last season, Okafor scored 920 points on his 861 FGAs, or 1.06 points per shooting possession. In his estimated 165 FT possessions (that's 374 FTAs multiplied by the 0.44 adjustment), he scored 213 points, or 1.29 per possession. Even at his woeful clip, he was more efficient from the line than from the floor. Under this premise, given 100 FGAs he'd score 106 points. Given 100 trips to the line (200 FTAs), he'd score 129 points. That's a big difference. (Note: this ignores the idea that some fouls go uncalled. Everyone knows that never happens, though.)

The break-even FT% mark varies depending on a player's FG% (and threes complicate the matter further). But an easy rule of thumb: if you FT% is better than your FG%, you're better off drawing the foul. A limited number of regular players last year made the "Avoid FTs Club": Dwight Howard, Shaq, Tyson Chandler, Josh Boone, Chuck Hayes, Andris Biedrins and Jason Collins.

So Okafor should certainly work on that FT%, as should all NBA players. But very few should actually seek to decrease the number of FTs they take. In almost every case in the NBA, it's the best shot you can get.