Crystal Ballin': NBA Northwest Division

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It's time to get our Miss Cleo on. On the surface, the Northwest seems to offer one real championship contender (Utah) and two more potential playoff teams (Denver, Portland). Those playoff teams are a source of intrigue, as expectations for the budding Blazers have gotten completely out of control, while a lot of folks are seeming to forget that Denver was an 8th seed in the toughest West ever last season.

A lot of folks are picking Portland ahead of Denver. Is that right? We asked Jeremy of Pickaxe and Roll for his thoughts.

As currently constituted, I believe the Denver Nuggets are a playoff team and the second best team in the Northwest Division behind the despised Utah Jazz. Many observers are writing off the Nuggets sans Marcus Camby and expecting the Portland Trailblazers to explode to 50 wins or more this season. Here are two things most people do not realize or are forgetting.

First of all Nene is a better player than Camby. Nene has found himself labeled as injury prone, but in all likelihood he will not be stricken with cancer again this season. Secondly, it is much more difficult to raise your win total from 41 to 50 than 32 to 41, which is what Portland did last year. Right now I see the Nuggets and Blazers both winning 45 to 48 games and the Nuggets ending up just one or two games better.

However, should Allen Iverson be shipped off in a financially motivated transaction before the trading deadline, you can completely disregard everything I just wrote. How's that for a disclaimer?

That's a lot of sane talk ... but what do Blazers fans think? We look to Dave Deckard of Blazers Edge on this matters.

If you've read anything about the Portland Trail Blazers this summer you know the team is on its way up. The question is, how far up does the elevator go this season? Pundits believe Portland will return to the playoffs this year. The team won 41 last year without Greg Oden, who by all reports is healthy and ready to return. The Blazers might well have two of the top ten rookies in the league in Jerryd Bayless and Rudy Fernandez joining Oden.

The Nuggets, on the other hand, appear to have reached their apex. Marcus Camby is gone. Despite the scoring stats, Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony still haven't produced a playoff series win. Nene and Kenyon Martin, who anchor the frontcourt, have struggled through repeated injuries. Duplicating their 50-win campaign would be an achievement for Denver. That makes this season a coin-flip between the two teams.

The hype surrounding Portland right now is too intense. They're not going to heal the sick with a touch, bail out the economy, and produce a low-fat, great-tasting cheesecake. They're going to struggle through a brutal early schedule as they get used to each other and playing in the league with a target on their back. The pessimism surrounding Denver is also overstated. They have no shot to be a contender but Iverson plus Anthony equals a chance to win any given game in the regular season.

Both teams have a chance of falling apart completely--Denver through apathy and lack of focus, Portland through loss of confidence. If the two teams were to meet in a seven-game playoff series Denver's veteran experience would probably give them the edge. Through an 82-game schedule Portland's youth and enthusiasm might be better served. Provided both stay afloat, look for mid-40's win totals from each and a dogfight in the last weeks of the season to claim a playoff berth.

More sanity! Damn the blogosphere for its even-keeled, level-headedness. I guess we'll have to turn on the TV to get some outspoken nuts making controversial statements. (Though when Channing Frye hears Dave's slanderous claims against his cheesecake recipe it is ON.)

In all honesty, these guys are right. Denver will be competitive so long as 'Melo and Iverson are playing in the same jerseys. With Linas Kleiza and J.R. Smith off the bench, and Nene and an at least partially reanimated Kenyon Martin in the frontcourt ... rumors of Nugget death are greatly exaggerated. Likewise, the explosion of performance in Portland is being overstated. The gap between a .500 team and a 50-win team is huge! Ask Washington, ask Golden State. New Orleans made the leap, as Utah did the year prior. But it was a different situation: those teams had the core talent for the heightened performance for several years and were held back by injuries. Portland's squadron is just now coming together. It's going to take at least another year to truly arrive among the contenders.

The bottom of this division also holds some intrigue. The Thunder will draw crowds and eyes ... the world cannot ignore Kevin Durant, no matter how much it wants to. I also happen to think Minnesota is headed in the right direction with a much better roster than the '07-08 version. Does Wyn of Canis Hoopus agree?

When Kevin "Not Isiah Thomas" McHale predicted that the Wolves would win 20 more games this season all the way back in April (that would make them 42-40), we all laughed. And sometimes, I still laugh about it. But just because I don't expect them to be above .500 doesn't mean that I think they'll actually get worse this year. Last season they had, along with Memphis, the 3rd worst record in the league. And after a year of surprisingly good personnel moves by the front office that locked up quality players, added prospects and picks and brought on Mike Miller, it'd be a stretch for them jump to 30 or 35 wins. Defense will be the tough part, but Al Jefferson has already acknowledged that's what he needs to work on (when he gets healthy).

Last year's team suffered from mental mistakes that led to stupid plays and, some nights, giving up. For all his warts, though, coach Randy Wittman never let a losing mentality sink in. With more time to gel, improved talent and a vocal hunger from this young squad's leaders, the Wolves should be on the rise. And ending up in the bottom four last year gives them an easy point to improve from.

The standards for advancement are indeed smaller at the bottom, and it's "easier" to improve from 22 wins to 30 than from 42 to 50. Everything comes down to Randy Foye and the frontcourt here. If Jefferson and Kevin Love can conspire to ably defend, and Foye can finally play, this team can distance itself for the dregs.

How much will the Thunder improve? Well, do they have to? I mean, is it inconceivable the Thunder could be just as bad as the Sonics were? MJ's early teams weren't so good -- they weren't this bad, but the Bulls didn't become world-beaters just because a young G.O.A.T. came to town. (And mind you that Durant is far younger than He was as an NBA sophomore.) Luke Ridnour's no great shakes, but replacing him with a 20-year-old rookie means immediate trouble. Jeff Green is people, but he's gotta lot to learn. Chris Wilcox seems like perfect trade bait for Sam Presti. I don't see this team sniffing 30 wins (real low stakes), unless KD goes LeBron and pulls a whole lotta bacon out of the market.

And, as much as it pains me to say (we don't like the Jazz in Sacramento), I think this might be Utah's best chance at supremacy. Arguably, Utah was among the West's three best teams last season, with L.A. and New Orleans. And all three of those squads should be better this year, including the Jazz, which has a lot of young contributors getting better. With Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur hitting their peaks, Deron Williams burgeoning, and Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsap, Ronnie Price and Kyle Korver improving both individually and within the simple Sloan offense ... this is a potential champion, and we're not talking division.

Alright, enough blabber: turkey time.

1. Utah
2. Denver
3. Portland
4. Minnesota
5. Oklahoma City

Most Important Northwesterner: Boozer.
Best Northwestern Rookie: Oden.

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

9-30-2008 @ 12:30PM

Wayne said...

I think your crystal is broken. You can write me off as another Blazer homer, but I've followed this rebuilding from day one... the ins and the outs. It's hard to be objective, but I'll try.

1. If you take the same Blazer squad that took the court last season, add the year of experience and the improvements that several of them (Webster, Aldridge, Blake) have made to their game, they win 46 games this year. All that number represents is turning around the results of 5 - out of 41 - games. Aldridge looks to be an all star this year. He is buff - much more so than last year. Webster (yeah, that guy who scored 24 against Utah last season - in one quarter) has been focusing on consistency, outside shooting touch and conditioning. 5 games from one year to the next with a young, improved squad is very conservative. And that's taking the same starting five from last year.

Add Oden. How many wins is a healthy Oden worth? His teammates are in awe of what they see. He's bigger, stronger, and more skilled than he ever was in college, plus he has two healthy hands now. He's already being touted as one of the best in the NBA mostly for his size and unmatched athletecism alone. Oden in the middle = x wins. Solve for quantity x.

Bayless is a fearless attack machine and Fernandez has McMillan drooling. None of these three guys (Oden, Fernandez or Bayless) is going to play like a rookie. I suspect that two of the three (Oden plus ???) will be in the running for ROY. How much worth does that bring? How many wins?

There's a reason for Blazermania right now. Dave's tempered in his response. I understand that. It's better to keep expectations low and then surpass those. But if you listen to those who are with the team (Roy in particular), this team is going to make some waves this year. Look for a .500 start over the first 24 games, then solid improvement from there. We'll see soon enough. I'm fairly confident that I'm right on this.

tominhawaii said...

I don't know how anyone could think the Blazers will anything less than 62 games. Who is that Dave guy and how did he become an expert? I'm pretty sure the Blazers will go undefeated, but I'm tempering my expectations to 62 games to avoid being called a homer.

9-30-2008 @ 2:46PM

blsfalcao said...

I want to know if those who think that Denver will have a better record than Portland would be willing to put money on that.
I'm sure you'll find a lot of rational people willing to accept the bet.

By the way, Deron is more important ( and better) than Boozer.

9-30-2008 @ 5:09PM

Jay said...

I think the Blazers have a great future team, but I do not think it will gel as fast as this year.

Oden will be a monster, but the game is much different than when Shaq was a rookie. Oden just might be in foul trouble due to offensive foul calls. I am not saying they will be fair calls, but I can see him having some problems because there really isn't another center that will be built like him.

Bayless is another player that I think I will like to watch play. But just because you are a ROY candidate doesn't mean you are that great that fast. You can have a low FG% and high turnovers and still score points if you take enough shots.

Rudy Fernandez can play basketball. But he will also have other things on his mind, adjusting to a new team, new rules for the game, new refs, a new country, etc... His mind might not be 100% focused. Since there are quite a few young players on the Blazers, it might not be that bad. If the young players can hang out together after the games, after the practices, etc and become real friends and not just co-workers, Rudy will adjust quicker.

Blazers have a lot of talent, but there are still some things that can delay their progress.

9-30-2008 @ 10:33PM

Come to think of it, I agree with Jay. I don't think the Blazers will go undefeated this year. We need to keep it real.

10-01-2008 @ 12:41AM

tssbro said...

The lowest number of wins a team has improved after adding a #1 over-all pick is 11. That would put the Blazers at 52 wins. I understand all the thoughts about it being more difficult to go from 40 to 50 wins than 30 to 40 but I have a hard time seeing this team not improving dramatically by adding Oden, Rudy and Bayless and only losing Jarrett Jack and James Jones.

They lost 5-8 games last year simply because of inexperience. A year of experience plus Oden, Rudy and Bayless is worth at least 10 wins.