O.J. Mayo has been simply thrilling this season. Most knocks against Mayo have been dismissed, and all the otherworldly talent which made him tops in the high school class of 2007 has been realized early in his NBA career.This isn't to say O.J. is without faults, or that he's the second Second Coming. There's a gulf between LeBron and O.J. But compare Mayo the Rookie to the vaunted draft class of 2003, and you start thinking about what may be.
After the jump, I take a visual look at Mayo's offense in comparison to the rookie years of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Carmelo Anthony.
Note that I kept Chris Bosh out of the discussion because he's a much different type of player than the other three '03s. Mayo is similar in role to the troika of playmakers; Bosh (despite his perimeter ways) is much more a pivot than the others.
Also note that I kept Darko Milicic out of the discussion because I have no sense of humor.
The most important offensive skill is, obviously, scoring. There are two elements to scoring: volume and efficiency. To be a killer scorer, you need lots of both. You can be a 20-point scorer and suck (ask Ricky Davis) or be ultra-efficient with your shot but make no impact (Mikki Moore). The best scorers in basketball create a lot of shot opportunities (this is a skill) and make an above-average rate of them (also a skill).
All three studied Class of '03 products are noted scorers. LeBron and Wade each have scoring titles; 'Melo averaged almost 29 points per game '06-07. Despite undulations, each has put up the big numbers on average efficiency or better (much better in the cases of LeBron and Wade).
Mayo's only two months in, but his early numbers make it look like he'll hit the same offensive levels the '03 stars have. Below is a graphic stack-up (at the behest of Nate Jones) of how Mayo has performed in comparison to the '03 men in the major scoring and offensive categories in their rookie seasons.
Mayo is currently averaging 19.9 points per 36 minutes -- more than Rookie LeBron and Rookie Wade, and a bit less than Rookie 'Melo. On shooting efficiency (True Shooting percentage adjusts for free throws and threes; it is akin to "points per shot"), Mayo blows the others out of the water: he is shooting 47 percent from the floor, 40 percent from three, and 89 percent from the stripe. Simply unreal for a rookie in a first go-round.
While Mayo hasn't used as great a share of Memphis' possessions as LeBron and 'Melo did in Cleveland and Denver, O.J.'s usage rate (25.8 percent) is comparable to that of Wade and super high for a rookie guard. (By comparison, Derrick Rose's usage is only 22 percent this season.) John Hollinger's summary stat PER accounts for non-scoring statistics, but remains the best overall offensive-based metric. Here, Mayo challenges LeBron for tops among the cadre.
By focusing on the rookie years of these players, we're ignoring age a bit. Mayo is 21. Rookie LeBron and Rookie 'Melo were 19. Rookie Wade was 22. Certainly, LeBron at age 21 was better than Mayo is today -- again, I'm not insisting O.J. is the second Second Coming. We're also willfully ignoring assists (Mayo's far below Wade and LeBron) and rebounding (Mayo's at the bottom) to focus on scoring. But again, I implore you to understand that scoring is really, really important, and a good indicator of pending stardom.
It's impossible to look at these numbers and assert Mayo is not on a path to stardom. If the first two months of Mayo's career are any indication of what's to come, the league had better hold its breath.
Comments (Page 1 of 1)
wouldn't whoever comes after LeBron be the third coming?
1. MJ
2. LJ
3. ???
(insert South Park profit joke here)
LeBron has not been firmly established as the True Second Coming in all quarters. (I bow to his Altar, but not everyone is convinced yet. Give it another year.) Thus, since there is currently no codified Second Coming, Mayo cannot then be a potential Third Coming. Until LeBron is sworn in as the Second Coming, all potential Third Comings (Durant, Mayo) will be referred to as second Second Comings.
Yeah I was wondering where KD stacks up as well. :)
Great post. minor comment: Dwayne has not won a scoring title...yet.
How Kevin Durant fits in also would interest me, especially because there are some differences in the talent levels each player had surrounding him. Mayo's numbers are incredible, but his team is atrocious. Wade made the playoffs surrounded by Lamar Odom and a not-yet-an-All Star Caron Butler, decreasing his team's reliance on him but also, in contrast, giving him a look at better shots on average. The Cavaliers were bad, but in a conference where two teams with losing records made the playoffs, and they were only 1 game out (with 35 wins!). And the Nuggets too made a ridiculous turnaround from the previous year and made the playoffs.
The Grizzlies aren't seeing that same kind of success, so that may be one reason that the '03-style accolades aren't yet coming for him. It's not surprising then that Derrick Rose, on a team in the mix for the 8 spot in the East, is getting a lot of attention.
On a side note, it also would have made more sense to compare Mayo's first 25 games to the first 25 of that group. I'm not sure how variable their play was across the year, but it'd be a fairer comparison in theory. Regardless, awesome work (and chart), Tom.
mmmm, I don't think the Grizzlies are too bad this year. Think about it, they have Rudy Gay and lots of other young, promising talent. I guess you really need to qualify your statement, because they have really shown some potential this year: a five game winning streak recently and strong games against strong teams (witness the recent close loss to the Fakers--they were up six w/four to go in the game--the final score is due to free throws and a bush league breakaway dunk by Kobe @ the buzzer).
Mayo is more like the next Gilbert Arenas, great scorer who can never play on a winning team
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