Kobe-LeBron: The Path Towards Jordan

As we lead up to Monday's showdown between the Cavaliers and Lakers, we focus our attentions on LeBron James and Kobe Bryant. My feelings on the State of the NBA Superstars has been published 'round here before. Through my eyes, LeBron is clearly the best player in the world (and, ahem, Kobe's not even #2 right now).

But at this late stage (Thursday night, to be exact), big-name analysts like Kenny Smith still name Kobe number one. That's fine -- you're entitled to your opinion, Kenny Smith. But I'm entitled to call that opinion ridiculous. So, um: that opinion is ridiculous. Follow me down the rabbit hole, from whence we shall never return.

Again, I've been hip deep in this muck plenty before. I named LeBron the best player in the NBA this summer; I hear he donated the prize of 500 ZillerBucks to charity. To me, it's clear-cut. To science, it seems pretty clear cut. But for whatever reason, Kenny Smith and some of you -- all good people, I trust -- argue the opposite.

John Hollinger's Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is the best summary measure we've got ... and it's damn good. Michael Jordan, Wilt Chamberlain and Shaquille O'Neal own the top 10 list of highest PER seasons -- this isn't some crackpot measure that counts Dennis Rodman as the finest player in modern history or Allen Iverson as just another scrub. PER mixes the right level of unexpected surprise with a grounded, "smell test" accuracy. Almost every analyst working for a team these days knows and respects PER as a measurement of individual player performance.

MJ has the best career PER, and the top four PER seasons of the modern era. He's the Greatest of All Time for a reason, that reason being that he is the Greatest of All Time. And of course, Kobe and 'Bron are inextricably linked to His Airness as potential usurpers to the throne. Kobe's been the Second Coming since '96, and James has settled into that spot over the past five seasons.

But what I don't get is that if Kobe is a potential G.O.A.T., and if LeBron is a potential G.O.A.T., and Kobe is much older than LeBron ... shouldn't their performances to date at least be in the same stratosphere? Because they aren't.

LeBron -- who just turned 24 -- has already had two full seasons statistically better than the peak of Kobe (who is now age 30). This season for LeBron looks to break MJ's high standard -- and Kobe's peak is a mile back. The realist's premonitions of LeBron's reign over Kobe date back to '06, when a 21-year-old 'Bron matched Kobe's season shot for shot, box score for box score, win for win. Last season, LeBron officially broke away from Bryant. The comparison was not close last year. This season, the gulf is much, much larger.

And Kenny Smith is still arguing that Kobe's the best player in the world. It's absolutely hilarious. I'm not sure what LeBron needs to do in order to prove his mettle -- I imagine Kobephiles will point to his rings, but no one's arguing Kobe circa 2002 is the G.O.A.T. -- and I'm positive he doesn't care what Smith or I or you say. But for the good of the world, for the good of the children ... can we please take our heads out of [the sand] and admit reality? LeBron is the best player on this or any world, and there is no question.

Come on, you can do it. Say it slowly, if you must. LeBron ... is ... the best.

</self-righteous jerkwad>

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 4)

1-16-2009 @ 10:06AM

ayalagr5 said...

Dr.J,M.J. and now King James,they are all three very unique,while kobe brags ball hogs and copy cats M.J.Kobe is a has been.He does not know what he wants or who he wants to be.He wants to be Jordan,but there is only one,just like Dr.j lust like King James.Kobe needs to get out of the way for King James to bring the NBA back to greatness.Lust like M.j

1-16-2009 @ 1:35PM

lbeptx said...

well said

1-16-2009 @ 1:54PM

marcus said...

Here's something PER fetishists can never answer. Do you completely follow PER religiously? If you insist on saying LeBron is greater than Kobe because of PER - and consider counterarguments ludicrous - then don't you have to follow your argument all the way through? Here's what I'm saying. This year, Carlos Boozer is ahead of Duncan in PER. Is he greater than Duncan?

And let's take a look at the all-time career PEr, which you insist on saying represents as close to the truth as we're going to get. You list the first two guys on the list as Jordan and Shaq, but decline to mention the third. David Robinson. Is David Robinson the third-best player of all-time? Or is Wilt, Duncan, Barkley, Magic, Bird, Hakeem maybe better? But how can that be if you insist that PER is the be all and end all of judging players? Guess who's No. 8 on the all-time PER list? The immortal Neil Johnston. Are you ready to say Neil Johnston is the eighth-best player ever? If not, then can't you see why someone might still think Kobe's better than LeBron, despite what PER might say?

Dirk Nowitzki is 12th all time. That means he's better than Kobe, Mailman, Gernett, Bird, Oscar, and Hakeem. No, really, he is, PER says so. but you'd probably disagree with that? But how can you if PER is infallible? So, again I ask, why is it so hard to contemplate that people still think Kobe's better?

More PER fun. McGrady is 20th all time, ahead of West, Baylor, Moses Malone. You have to accept that's true, right? Because PER says so.

Or maybe there's more than PER! And this is what I go by: in the last six minutes, who do you want...Kobe or LEbron. Me, I'm still going with Kobe, and liking my chances.

1-16-2009 @ 2:00PM

Evan said...

Thank you for illustrating one of my points that I made in #4

"And just because you see correlations that you think should be the case doesn't make the model correct. It just means you're holding assumptions. Or just quite pathetically holding on only to the "evidences" that "support" your claim."

1-17-2009 @ 10:36AM

ryan said...

i agree that PER is not the best way to determine who is better... but it is a start.

kobe is one of the best players ever, but when i watch him... i never get that excited. the guy settles for way too many jumpshots, and doesnt even give himself the best chance to score (whats with the line drives?).

when i see lebron play, i try not to blink. i have seen plenty basketball in my life to know when i'm seeing something special, and this kid is special. he will make you say wow on either end of the court.

add into consideration the players physical attributes:

kobe is compared to a deadly snake because of his abilities to close games and slither around players to the hoop. he's fast, can jump, and is toned... but players dont fear him physically.

lebron is compared to a train. a freaking train! he has the abilities to go around you or through you. he is one of the fastest, most durable players in the history of the game, and can still jump out of the arena. players legitimately fear this guy.
_________________

i hope to God that lebron never gets seriously injured because i think that he will go down as the best athlete ever.

thats right, ever.

brace yourselves for him to take over the NBA for the next decade. expect many, many rings and repeats.

starting..... now.

1-17-2009 @ 10:49AM

ryantomm said...

additionally...

lebron is listed as a SF, but that is only because they cant fit "PG,SG,SF,PF,C" under position.

he can take over a game in so many ways (in fact, just about every way possible) and at any position. the few flaws in his game are starting to fade by the day.

and if you want to confirm his greatness, watch lebrons first game ever (vs SAC). i remember seeing it live, and telling my dad "he will be the best ever."

1-16-2009 @ 1:56PM

You do realize that PER is not a science? If you actually studied statistics at a university level, you would learn statistics is just another form of opinion. Just because it utilizes numbers doesn't imply that it's objective. Let me repeat this for the low IQ people: STATS ARE NOT OBJECTIVE. And just because you see correlations that you think should be the case doesn't make the model correct. It just means you're holding assumptions. Or just quite pathetically holding on only to the "evidences" that "support" your claim.
Why do amateurs talk about things they don't know about? Do you go to a medical conference and try to assert your opinions? Sure go ahead, you're free to do so. Everything you say will just be wrong. Just like what you and a lot of people following the NBA are saying is wrong. And Tom Ziller is STILL arguing that Lebron is the best player in the world. It's absolutely hilarious.

1-17-2009 @ 10:54AM

shepardtrent said...

Evam, you seem really intelligent...Let us idiots with low IQ's know if we can help you better understand us!

1-16-2009 @ 2:03PM

Marcus said...

Thumbs up, Evan.

And here's the link to the all-time PER. Where, again, Neil Johnston is apparently the 8th-best player ever. And David Robinson is third-best.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/per_career.html

1-16-2009 @ 2:04PM

gstarrpro said...

Kobe is a has been.. what are you smoking? A "Has been" doesn't average 27 ppg, and leads team to 31-7 record. I'll take Kobe no matter what your stats claim!!!

1-16-2009 @ 2:07PM

I want to understand people with low IQ's. Tom, does it make you feel smarter than you are to wield around numbers that you don't understand? That if you go "PER this, PER that, Lebron's PER..." it makes you sound smart? You should realize that it accomplishes the absolute opposite of that. Try actually learning about science first before pretending you know anything about it. It just makes you look like a clueless monkey waving around a test tube.

lilsweetanna87 said...

they won't consider lebron james the best until he can win the title. Lebron is the best right now, but Kobe is the best closer. You saw what Lebron did in Chicago, sometimes he doesn't make smart decision. Oh and he needs to be consistent on his jump shot, but he is Awesome! Um the reason people think Kobe is the best is because he has the killer instinct. I never really like comparing who is the best, but I do wish they were in the same team also with chris paul, dwight howard, and team duncan. And for sure that team will 82-0!

1-16-2009 @ 2:25PM

Feature87 said...

Yeah...I see your point...but stats are stats and basketball is still more than just the plain stats. Bron has a pretty good...or damn good season...but Kobe is Kobe, he is just 30 and is already a legend...

1-16-2009 @ 2:41PM

Tom, still waiting...is David Robinson the third-best player ever? Is Neil Johnston the 8th best ever? PER says it's so, it must be true. and again, if you go "Yeah, but.." in those cases, why is it so inconceivable to your Kings-addled mind that someone might think Kobe's better than LeBron, despite what PER says.

Neil Johnston. 24.67 PEr. 8th best ever.
10th: Kareem.

When are people going to pull their heads out of their - you know what - and admit Neil is better than Kareem?

Hey, look, Elton Brand is 23rd all-time! Better than: Moses, Stockton, Dominique, Issel, Iverson, Barry, Ewing, Drexler.

John Drew is 45th! Ahead of Kevin McHale! He's better than Kevin McHale! Right? Because PER says so.

Please address this. Why do you follow PER to the tee when talking about LeBron vs. Kobe - and don't accept other views without laughing them off - if you're not going to also accept that Vince Carter is 20 places ahead of Kevin McHale on PER.

1-16-2009 @ 3:47PM

jkads said...

Besides PER, here is another stat that I'll endorse, the 82games.com "clutch" stat:

http://82games.com/CSORT11.HTM

I've posted last years results because stats are typically more reliable with a larger sample size.

1-16-2009 @ 3:48PM

Just as an fyi, "clutch" is defined as:

4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points

1-16-2009 @ 3:52PM

JJ The Third said...

I think lilsweetanna87 hit the nail on the head. Nothing biases sports brass towards calling someone great like championships (and that's usually fair). LeBron has to win the big one before this discussion gets interesting.

One thing I don't understand though, Marcus...I don't know if your Boozer-to-Duncan comparison works. When talking about the G.O.A.T. potential, Tom isn't fully comparing LeBron to Kobe now. He's comparing LeBron at age 24 to Kobe at age 24. So if you want to make a Carlos Boozer argument, you have to compare his PER at this age to Duncan's PER at the same age, not to Duncan at his current age. If that still shows Boozer as statistically better, you've sold me...

1-16-2009 @ 4:05PM

Actually, from what I've gathered through the text and the graph, Tom is comparing LeBron at any age (but most specifically now) to Kobe at any age. That's why on the graph we have a key that spells out Kobe's peak vs. LeBron's present PER.

I think PER is an all around good stat, but I'd agree that people use stats to make their side of an argument right. If the only stat that mattered was points scored, this would be your list of best players:

1. 38,387 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. 36,928 Karl Malone
3. 32,292 Michael Jordan
4. 31,419 Wilt Chamberlain
5. 27,409 Moses Malone
6. 27,313 Elvin Hayes
7. 26,946 Hakeem Olujawon
8. 26,710 Oscar Robertson
9. 26,668 Dominique Wilkins
10. 26,395 John Havlicek

If it was most points scored in a game, it would be this:

1. 100 Wilt
2. 81 Kobe

PER takes into account a lot of different statistics to make one powerful stat, but it's definitely not perfect...

1-16-2009 @ 4:03PM

John said...

Here's the thing. Kobe's been in the league since 1996, has 3 rings and numerous ungodly stats. Lebron is in his 5th year, no rings, and not nearly as many stats. This is his first REALLY good year not quite halfway through. So now he's better than Kobe. What's this furor to make Lebron better than Kobe? It's all about Kobe isn't it? If you guys have to keep bringing every player (Wade when he won the championship was better than Kobe) who becomes better than Kobe Bryant, then Kobe Bryant is the measuring stick. He's still the best amongst his peers. Lebron says so on video. When Lebron amasses the all defensive awards, and all the scoring stats that Kobe has, then we can talk about him. First he has to win a championship.