If Jermaine O'Neal Is the Answer for Miami, What's the Question?

Yahoo!'s Adrian Wojnarowski reports Miami boss Pat Riley is seriously considering sending Shawn Marion to Toronto in exchange for Jermaine O'Neal. That the Raptors want to exile J.O. is not a surprise; the match with Chris Bosh has been nothing like a match, and Andrea Bargnani's sudden arrival makes the $20 million man superfluous at best.

That begs the question, though: why on Earth would Riley pick O'Neal of all available centers?

It's no secret that Sacramento has made Brad Miller available; the price for Miami is said to be taking Kenny Thomas' contract back as well. Miller's contract matches O'Neal's in length, but is about $10 million cheaper next season. Thomas also expires in '10, and he makes $8 million next year.

O'Neal is probably better than Miller in toto, but J.O. isn't the type to fit in with dominant scorers. In fact, that's been the problem in Toronto: O'Neal hasn't been able to figure out when to assert himself in coordination with Bosh and the other Raptor bigs. I mean, if J.O. can't mesh with Bosh, how are we supposed to believe he'll fit a system depending on Dwyane Wade and (suddenly) Michael Beasley?

Miller, on the other hand, is a 7-foot point guard who has been playing marvelous basketball over the past three weeks (including a 30/20 game on Wednesday). Miller won't block shots like J.O. or score out of the pivot, but ask Kevin Martin if Wade's offense will come easier with Brad on the floor. Further, Miami has Udonis Haslem, an outstanding defender and rebounder. Joel Anthony's play has been a problem, but Miller's better in every sector without taking much off the table.

It seems unlikely Sacramento would hold out for more than Marion, so this would appear to come down to Riley preferring J.O. to Miller and/or refusing to take back K.T. For the reasons mentioned above, as well as the fact Thomas is in good shape and has had some surprisingly good stints for Sacramento of late, this move would be a mistake.

If you're going to kill your shot at 2009 cap space, J.O. isn't a big enough difference to make it worth your while. (Maybe Miller isn't either, for that matter.) Even though Marion is unhappy and the Heat could use a better center, it might behoove Riley to hold on to Marion's expiring contract and hold out for the Carlos Boozer sweepstakes this summer.

One more note: if this deal goes through as rumored, Miami will have essentially flipped Shaquille O'Neal for J.O. and Marcus Banks. Considering the Big Shaqtus' performance in the desert and that both O'Neals have deals expiring in 2010, that's a bit of disaster, isn't it?