Can Rasheed Wallace Bounce Back in Detroit's New Lineup?

A report from the Palace of Auburn Hills, where the Pistons faced the Mavericks on January 23rd.

When Michael Curry went from smallball (featuring three guards and Tayshaun Prince playing out of position at power forward) back to a more traditional lineup, the question on everybody's mind was how Rip Hamilton or Allen Iverson would handle being bumped to the bench.

Everyone, that is, except Curry himself. "I wasn't worried about if Rip wanted to come off the bench or Allen wanted to come off the bench. We just made a decision on what gives us the chance to be at our best," Curry said while announcing the move earlier this week.

Instead, as Curry told reporters before Friday's game, the question he needs answered is whether adding another big man to the starting five will help Rasheed Wallace bounce back.

Somewhat lost in the commotion this year has been the fact that Wallace has taken a sizable step back, a rarity among NBA players in a contract year. Despite a slight uptick in playing time (he's playing 32.6 minutes a night, up from 30.5 in 2007-08) his numbers are down virtually across the board: he's averaging fewer points, blocks, steals and assists.

His rebounds have increased (from 6.6 per game to 7.5), but it's still not the type of production most teams like to see from a starting center. For those who value advanced statistics, the decline of his overall game is easy to quantify. After posting a 17.2 PER in 2007-08, he's down to 14.0 this year. For reference, anything less than 15.0 is considered below-average. That's not to say he's no longer vital to Detroit's success -- in fact, he's second among the regulars with a +2.9 net plus/minus -- but it's indicative of how he's slowing down.

Is Wallace's age catching up with him? That's part of it; at 34 years old, he can't do all the same things he could do even a few years ago, let alone shoulder the load as the only big man on the court.

"You can watch him anytime, he can't by himself carry the paint," Curry said before Friday's game. "So a lot of times when we were small, especially if teams were in traps and he would have to come and protect the paint and get back to the other big, he can't do that anymore over a long stretch of the game. So having that other big on the floor really helps.

Amir Johnson, Jason Maxiell and Kwame Brown all have their own unique skill-sets, but as Curry explained, "their youth and activity can get to places where Rasheed no longer can kind of get to on a consistent basis. So they help him in that area."

But beyond that, Curry thinks he has another explanation for Wallace's decline, suggesting he may have ridden Wallace too hard early in the year while waiting for Antonio McDyess to return. "I thought Rasheed played well while Dyess was out," Curry said Friday. "I thought he lost his legs somewhat since he was out with the foot injury. I don't think his shot has gotten back under him.

"I thought for a long stretch we played him heavy minutes and I thought he played well and maybe because of that, maybe we chased a few wins [and] we probably wore him down a little bit. Maybe that's on me. But sometimes it happens [...] when you're shorthanded and you're trying to get us some wins. But I just think that now with the way the rotation is, I think he'll fall back into less minutes and then I think he can be more effective that way."

A look at the game log supports Curry's theory: Wallace routinely saw 36-40 minutes a game before McDyess re-signed. He handled the load early, averaging 12.9 points in October/November, but eventually slowed, scoring just 11.6 points per game in December and 10.4 thus far in January. His shooting percentage has similarly dropped, from a barely acceptable 44.1% in October/November to 40.3% in December and a dismal 37.1% in January.

How has he responded now that Detroit has gone back to a traditional lineup? So far, not well: in the first two games, he's scored just three and four points, respectively, while shooting a combined 3-13 from the field. The silver lining, though, is that he's played fewer minutes (24 and 28), which, if it continues, should help if Wallace is to bounce back.

And if not? The team will have a big decision to make at the trade deadline.

Wallace's contract expires at the end of the season, so if Joe Dumars puts him on the block there's no doubt there will be interested suitors. Would Dumars rather move him and take back salary in hopes of contending this year? Or would he rather stick with the status quo, knowing that even if the team falls short they'll have ample cap space this summer. Only time will tell.