Five Things takes a look at five things to watch out for in marquee games with playoff implications. Tuesday's Magic-Cavs showdown (7 PM ET) is one such romp.
Orlando's playoffs start tonight. Sure, the Magic have locked up a playoff appearance and are virtual locks for the third seed in the East. But the Magic's season at some point turned from just a rush to compete in the semifinals to "Hey, we can win this freaking thing." In order to do that, they need to get a top two seed, and the top seed would certainly help the most.
Believe it or not, all this talk about homecourt advantage is silliness. The Magic have only won three more games at home than on the road, whereas the Celtics and Cavs have proven they can play anywhere. The key, though, is sliding into the No. 1 seed's side of the bracket.
The two and three seeds have to play the third member of the Eastern trifecta in the semifinals, which means that even if you manage to get through the other beast from the East, you're likely headed for a six- to seven-game series with the top seed, who's probably had some rest. Conversely, the top seed gets the soft as yogurt eighth seed in the first round, and then they will play the winner of Hawks-Heat. And while Dwyane Wade is the single most terrifying player on the planet right now, you'd rather take your chances with Mario Chalmers and James Jones than Mo Williams and Zydrunas Ilgauskas or Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen.
So if the Magic wants to get there, it has to win tonight just to have a shot at the top seed. A win puts it into a tie with the Celtics for the two seed and just three games back of Cleveland. A loss puts the Magic five games back and it might as well start looking at hotels in Beantown. Or find a group therapist if they happen to land Detroit in the first round. Ye Gods.
To polish up our rusty Five Things gag, we thought we'd give you five things to look for tonight.
1. Strength Over Numbers: The Cavs have a crew of tough, big bodies they can use to bang you up on defense, an asset that's served them well in the playoffs before and will work again. Even without Ben Wallace, they have a small army of front court personnel to throw at you. Unless you're superhuman, they've got you covered.
You can go ahead and make the joke yourself.
Dwight Howard had 22 points and 18 rebounds earlier this year versus Cleveland in a win. He's been unstoppable lately, and everything for the Magic start and ends with the manchild of steel. The Cavs are going to need to get consistent defense low on Howard from Anderson Varejao and Ilgauskas. J.J. Hickson is going to need to use his fouls wisely. And LeBron James has to watch when he comes for the weakside block. Howard's good enough these days to get calls, and if the King finds his way into foul trouble, that would be... um... bad.
2. Go! West! Young Man! If the Magic have a weak spot, it's at small guard. Everyone's had a shot at it this season, and while they have some very talented players at the position, they're a long way from having a true two-guard. The Cavs, meanwhile, have adapted speedy point guard Delonte West seamlessly into the role, and he's having a terrific season. West is the formula that makes the Cavs' newly efficient offense go. Don't get suckered by the Mo Williams hype -- Williams is at the wheel, but West is what makes that baby purr. So the Magic are going to need to overcome West's ability with small guard by committee, and that means rookie Courtney Lee needs to man up and knock down big shots. A huge part of the Magic's success has been their three ball. If West out-duels the Magic off guards from the perimeter, that's a big swing in the Cavs' direction.
3. Man Help And The Help That Mans It: The Cavs' defensive system, much like Boston's, uses a man-help scheme to cover for a lack of lateral quickness. What one man struggles to do, two can overcome. This works particularly well against some teams, particularly teams that feature flashy, explosive guards and forwards like LeBron James and Kobe Bryant.
The Magic are not such a team.
Man-help can be disastrous against the Magic because they are perfectly happy to drive to bring the man-help, and kick to begin the 1-2-3 rotations that result in wide open three pointers for their sharpshooters. You let them open up the perimeter, and the floodgates open, and then you're scrambling to recover, and Howard is grabbing offensive boards and you fall apart like a flan in a cupboard.
The Cavs need to be able to stick with single coverage, except when Howard has the ball, and in those situations, the help immediatelyhas to come from the weakside. Double from the strong side and again, he'll kickstart the rotation. Their cross-court passes aren't as sharp, but that doesn't matter when they have a perimeter Snake Eyes every five feet.
Conversely, the Magic need to implement more man-help in order to slow down the MVP favorite Dwyane Wade LeBron James. The best way to slow James down is to bring the man-help from the baseline as soon as he starts to test the defense for the drive. Discourage him and make him into a jumpshooter, and he MAY only drop a 30-point triple-double on you. But that's better than the alternative. Let him to the basket and you're pickin' up fouls while he picks up points. It slows the tempo which helps the Cavs and lets James wear you down. You're better off daring him into a shootout, especially if you're Orlando and have the guns to back it up.
4. NDA: No. Dunks. Allowed. It's playoff time, kids. That means that easy buckets are not acceptable. Your man slips you and goes up for an easy one, you make him think twice about it. Now, this doesn't mean throwing your body around with no concern for the safety of other players. I mean, neither team is wearing purple and gold (yes, purple). But expect there to be an increase in the hammers put down. And if Orlando's going to show that they're not a team to be bullied this year, they have to prove they're willing to go that step.
As Sean Connery said in The Untouchables, "He puts one of your guys in the hospital, you put one of his in the morgue ... That's the Chicago Way." The fact that neither team actually plays in Chicago should be irrelevant. The quote just wouldn't seem as cool with "That's the Orlando Way."
5. The Turkish Thunder Thief: Hedo Turkoglu has adapted a strange ability to walk into big situations, stare down opposing crowds, watch as the opposing side gets all the credit, then calmly make big shot after big shot, chuckling all the while. He's done it to all of the best teams, and Cleveland might be the next stop on the Hedo Express. James will be busy guarding Rashard Lewis, which means Hedo might be free to roam the perimeter against either slower frontcourt players or smaller backcourt players. Turkoglu could end up being the difference in this game.
