As teams get eliminated from the 2009 NBA playoff picture, Fork 'Em figures out what went wrong.Through the first half of the season, the Bucks rode as one of the great surprises of the NBA. A team sunk in the dead space between truly atrocious and just plain bad in 2007-08, Scott Skiles (and Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut) had Milwaukee back on the map, threatening to crash the postseason and even peeking into one analyst's Top 5 around the New Year.
Then Redd tore his ACL and MCL (two, um, crucial ligaments) in late January, practically sinking the chances of the Bucks. Bogut followed Redd to the shelf, and there just wasn't enough left. Milwaukee wasn't the only city sunk by maladies -- the Clippers and Wizards can blame the Black Swan for their fates, to a degree. Really, that Milwaukee held on so long tells us these Bucks have something for next year.
Before injuries sat him down, Bogut put together a great little season, worthy of his monumental summertime extension. The Aussie still isn't a great scorer at the center position, but his rebounding went from good to stupendous, his overall defensive presence improved under Skiles, and he took better shots overall. Adding Richard Jefferson (an underrated offensive weapon) and turning the offensive management responsibilities over to Luke Ridnour helped Bogut, but Skiles is really the key here. For a few months, the Skiles defense turned Bogut's unformed clay into a legitimately stout form.
Redd became a bit more muted, as Jefferson and Ridnour soaked up possessions. It didn't have much effect on Redd's personal efficiency -- he actually seemed rather comfortable (both by sight and through the numbers) using 30% of the team's possessions a few years ago, a rare feat in the NBA. Back down to 25% this season, he had the same scoring efficiency overall. The only major alteration came as his turned the ball over less frequently, likely owed to the point guard focused attack.
The Bucks apparently had a deal sending Jefferson to Portland at the deadline, but the Blazers backed out. Jefferson, while still potent, had an off-year and will be more difficult to move this summer. As teams want to pay big for stars only, Jefferson's contract and limitations should provide steady pause. Of course, it only takes one suitor to change that tune.
Why is that important? Charlie Villanueva -- who went from "interesting" to "dynamo scorer" this season -- and Ramon Sessions will be restricted free agents in July, and mystical swingman Luc Richard Mbah a Moute needs to get paid next summer. Milwaukee can't really afford to carry Jefferson if he isn't helping them toward elite. (He's not really helping them toward elite.) While I understand that Jefferson provides more than the exiled Yi Jianlian-Bobby Simmons combo, it's still not enough to justify his contract. That salary hamstrings Milwaukee's plans for two key players this summer, and potentially one key player next year.
As such, all eyes will be on Sessions -- everyone loves a fast point guard with a habit of dropping huge assist games. Villanueva will be riddling with attention, too. In fact, he could steal a bit of (struggling) Carlos Boozer's attention. Bad news for the Bucks, who should want nothing more than post-dated congratulations on keeping their restricteds for cheap.
Owning the rights to good players is, in the end, positive. Milwaukee just needs to figure out how to turn those assets into a few more wins next season. The Bucks are on the right track.
