We should have seen this coming. Shame on everyone who wasn't paying attention.So caught up in the amazement and wonder over LeBron James – greatest player in the game today – we forgot history and crowned King James a little prematurely.
History would have told us he really doesn't have a chance this year.
There are four teams remaining in the hunt for the 2009 NBA title – all good teams, too – but only three of the four have the essential ingredient that champions have had throughout the last 30 years.
The Cavaliers will be left out in the cold. Sorry, Cleveland, but maybe free agency this summer will bring you what you need: A second star.
Solo acts – even the great ones – don't fly
The Lakers have Pau Gasol behind Kobe Bryant. The Nuggets have Chauncey Billups now guiding Carmelo Anthony. The Magic have Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu assisting Dwight Howard.
LeBron has a bunch of nice guys, hard-working role players, and obedient yes-men, but The King has no dance partner.
We've said it before, and we'll do it again, but not since Michael Jordan and the Bulls has a team won a title with more than a 10-point differential between the leading scorer and the second leading scorer.
Yet this goes beyond statistics. Even Jordan had Scottie Pippen, a multi-talented co-star who was the perfect fit for him and the Bulls. Pippen played in seven All-Star Games and won six championships.
Tim Duncan always had either David Robinson or Tony Parker. Shaq had Kobe. Shaq had Dwyane Wade. Isiah Thomas had Joe Dumars, Magic had Kareem. Simon had Garfunkel. Kevin Garnett had Paul Pierce last season. Bird had Kevin McHale and Robert Parish. Hakeem had Clyde Drexer, which bring us to the only exception to the rule in the last 30 years.
Hakeem Olajuwon and Drexler did it together in 1995, but Olajuwon did it alone in 1994, which is the season Jordan went off to play baseball. Olajuwon had a phenomenal year, averaging 27.3 points and 11.9 rebounds. The next best player on the team was Otis Thorpe, who did manage one All-Star appearance in his 17 NBA seasons covering 10 teams. He did have Kenny Smith, who has become a better television analyst than he ever was a basketball player.
But Thorpe was no star, so maybe he gives the Cavs hope. I guess one out of 30 means it's possible.
Yes, the Cavs won 66 games during the regular season – most in the league – but that doesn't mean anything at playoff time, when teams have so much more time to prepare. Teams, at this stage, are too good defensively to let any one player beat them.
During the marathon regular season, no one really changes what they do from game to game. There isn't time, or a willingness, to do that over 82 games. You let LeBron beat you, then move on to the next game. Everyone sticks to a season-long plan.
It didn't bite Cleveland in the first two rounds because Detroit quit before the playoffs began, and Atlanta didn't have the horses to make it work.
LeBron will make this a fun series to watch, as we saw in Game 1. He will thrill us with his skill, dazzle us with his brilliance, but he won't win his title this year.
Remember what history teachers always said in high school: If you don't learn history, you are destined to repeat it. And that's what so many NBA fans didn't do because they were blinded by the wonders LeBron.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
5-21-2009 @ 2:25PM
RMJ=H said...
Tim -
A fine theory, but I just don't believe it.
First, I believe that LeBron and Co. are good enough to win it all. You don't. That's ok and a matter of opinion.
However, the premise of the article is that a superstar needs a trusty sidekick to win it all. Again, good and holds generally.
If you're going to make this point, then you must extend it to both Eastern conference teams and not cherry pick the Cavs because they lost last night.
It's not enough to say, "And the Magic, they've got... uuhhh... Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis." Those two are so much better than the Cavs complementary players that you can lump them in with the "have a chance because the sidekick is good" championship teams.
Like I said, it's fine if you want to write an article about how the Cavs won't win, but hang your hat on a better premise. Tell me that their defense can't cope with the bevy of three point shooters that the Magic roll out or that LeBron can't chase around Lewis AND carry the offense simultaneously.
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5-21-2009 @ 2:27PM
RMJ=H said...
Oops. "Those two are so much better" should say "Those two aren't so much better" Apologies for the typo.
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5-21-2009 @ 3:04PM
MenoRikey said...
You're kidding me? You're writing them off after ONE game lost by ONE point after not playing for NINE days? Probably why you're writing for Fanhouse...
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5-21-2009 @ 9:59PM
Giles said...
Of COURSE he is kidding you. He is merely being sarcastic in saying The Cavs CAN`T win. Of COURSE they can. The rest of the article is more or less serious, though, and not entirely in error, though. The best buddies do NOT win, the best team wins. Of COURSE. But a good pair or trio of on court buddies, even if the press claims they hate each other off court, can certainly help focus a good team. Yes, Duncan had GinoBilli, when he was healthy, and Robinson. Longoria has Parker. Is that why they lost? Yes, Ken Smith is a good analyst, and a better co-host, but he was also an nba all star. And it was Robert Horry, big shot Bob, leading those two Olajuwon victories, and five others, as well as Hakeem leading those two. You want a legit comparison to this year`s Cavs, try the 1975 Golden State Warriors, led by Rick Barry. Except James can`t shoot from middle and long range, like Barry did. Wade played exceptionally well with O`Neal drawing the defense off him, but Shaq has 3 more Rings, Dwayne doesn`t. CleveLand WOULD fulfil the buddy theory, but El Zyd, the underrated all star center Zydrunas Ilgauskas (that is how it is spelled), lost his baby. It was still born. He has been decimated ever since. I am very sorry for El Zyd and his wife. James is NOT the new Jordan. He isn`t a guard. He hasn`t won Championships. Get real. But he IS potentially the best forward since Larry Bird, whose back didn`t hold up. If James` health holds up, he stnads an excellent chance of going to the basketball Hall of Fame. But Championships? Karl Malone had John Stockton, and others. They never won a championship. No guarantee James will either. But I LOVE his grumpy old man character. That curmedgeon should be coaching in the nba, reminding the pretty boys they haven`t proven ANYTHING, yet.
5-21-2009 @ 3:26PM
Enrique said...
While I agree that losing Game 1 was a crushing defeat, I still think the Cavs will make it to the FInals. But, they'll repeat their last finals appearance and get swept by the Nuggets or Lakers.
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5-21-2009 @ 3:52PM
obamaizadope said...
LeBron needs to chill out on the histrionics, and celebrations until he has that first ring on his finger..
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5-21-2009 @ 3:56PM
LAdubbz45 said...
Cavs were WAITING around to lose that game.
Magic took Game 1 and are the ones being written off.
Howard over Ilgaskus all day.
They'll let LBJ shoot long jumpers all day.
Verejao need to stop flopping and contribute to playing offense or defense. mo williams keeps calling for fouls, dude you r NOT the MVP.
just cuz u went to the allstar game dont mean nothing.
Magic knew LBJ was getting the ball for most the 4th qrt.
too predictable.
Magic just beat Boston, i would say their mental toughness is already there.
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5-21-2009 @ 3:58PM
lunatic_fo_ever said...
dont worry cavs fans. people like this guy wrote articles writing off the boston celtics last year and we saw what they did to win the championship. journalists are hardly ever right so we will see who has the last laugh when lebron is holding up the larry obrien trophy. lol the cavs lose one game in the postseason and the journalists are already writing the cavs off... stupid.
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5-21-2009 @ 4:00PM
henryclemente said...
I love when writers say "history tell us..." then later qualify with "...with the following exceptions...".
You're looking at history with colored glasses. If Pippen had not played with Jordan, he would have been a footnote. An aging David Robinson? Tony Parker? (Finals MVP or not) Duncan carried those teams. Are you counting Shaq 2006 a superstar? Wade won that by himself.
So basically, you're premise doesn't really apply to Olajuwon, Jordan, Duncan, and Wade. Yet, it applies to LeBron?
I have no doubt that when Lebron wins his championships (maybe not this year), you'll find a way to classify his supporting players as stars. (Wait... Mo Williams was already an all-star, so you have a built-in escape hatch).
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5-21-2009 @ 4:05PM
lunatic_fo_ever said...
i will just say this. lebron has more mental toughness than that whole orlando magic rotation (minus hedo of course, dude was great on sac-town). hell lebron won 4 str8 vs that good piston team, brang the celts to 7 games and was their biggest challenge AND was swept in the finals. i am absolutely positive that the magic do not win this series especially considering that mo-d'west will not play this badly and that lebron can ring out this kind of 49pt performance on any given night. i saw these same journalists write off the lakers after their game 1 defeat to houston and have seen these same journalists write off the celtics last year. its ridiculous to a point that i dont even take their opinions to heart anymore. i didnt know that losing a game while up 15 and losing by one was a reason to write off a team... especially when denver did the same thing a couple nights ago yet is still given a chance by these so called nba "experts"... give me a break.
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5-21-2009 @ 4:05PM
hilryshaves said...
Until he has a ring, LeBron is no different than the Burger King..
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5-21-2009 @ 5:02PM
Gloria said...
You know, until you clean up your red neck'n, bigoted, hateful comments and references, we will just consider you another jerk! You are entitled to your opinion but you certainly reveal yourself with your ignorance and no one cares what you think anyway!
5-21-2009 @ 4:28PM
imedajinsokt said...
Commenters seem to be missing Povtak's irrefutable statistical point: "...not since Michael Jordan and the Bulls has a team won a title with more than a 10-point differential between the leading scorer and the second leading scorer." Say what you want about Duncan's championship Spurs, or Wade's championship Heat, or last year's Celtics, there was NOT, as there IS with Cleveland, a 10-point gap between the leading and second-leading scorer. And Povtak has a convincing sub-point about Jordan's Bull, who were the exception: that second-leading scorer was Scottie Pippen, a seven-time all-star.
So, here's the question: If LeBron James is today's Michael Jordan (and he very well may be), who is Cleveland's Scottie Pippen? Answer: Nobody, and that's why they probably won't win the title this year.
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5-21-2009 @ 7:12PM
henryclemente said...
What about the other "exception" of the '94 Rockets Rockets (13.3 ppg differential between Olajuwon and Thorpe)?
The point is Povtak, on one hand, writes as if it is some statistical impossibility for the Cavs to win. Then on the other hand, sites all these exceptions.
5-21-2009 @ 4:45PM
Jesse Traylor said...
Crappy-waste of my time-article that reads without any merit.
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5-21-2009 @ 5:41PM
Mark said...
95% of sportswriters and announcers are bandwagon jumpers who really make me wonder how they even collect a paycheck. I'm not a Cavs fan but its ignorant to write them off after one loss. They didnt get to where they are for no reason. If they lose game 2 then this article would hold a little water so to speak.In baseball evenyone singing Arods and the Yankees praises now, but hes still never done anything when its really counted (Playoffs). Pretty much why I dont watch Sportscenter like I used to.
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5-21-2009 @ 6:03PM
jzz3skys said...
"The Great man theory is a philosophical theory that aims to explain history by the impact of 'Great men', or heroes: highly influential individuals who, due to either their personal charisma, intelligence and wisdom or Machiavellianism, used power in a way that had a decisive historical impact.
For example, a scholarly follower of the Great Man theory would be likely to study the Second World War by focusing on the big personalities of the conflict — Sir Winston Churchill, Chiang Kai-shek and Soong May-ling, Mao Ze Dong, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Joseph Stalin, Charles de Gaulle (Allies); Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, Hideki Tojo (Axis); et al. — and view all of the historical events as being tied directly to their own individual decisions and orders." (Wikipedia, "Great Man Theory")
Povtak's theory seems perfectly valid to me as a corrective to the basketball equivalent of the Great Man Theory, whose leading proponent on these boards is Mr. Terence Moore, who even goes so far as to low-rate the contributions of Kobe and D-Wade on Shaquille O'Neal-led championship teams by calling them "wanna-bes." The theory itself makes moot any analysis of one-on-one matchups and applied to a five-man squad is a blatant form of elitism. On these boards, it's meant to be provocative, but it may be only a slight exaggeration of the media narrative that seems to have deemed 2009 as YOLBA, or The Year of LeBron's Ascendency. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't.
PS The Ken Burns' Jazz series on PBS a few years ago looked at jazz history through the prism of the Great Man Theory.
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5-21-2009 @ 6:08PM
Marlene said...
Lebron has no help at all. How do you score 49 points and still loose the game? Was Lebron the only one playing out there? That's why Lebron will leave Cleveland for New York when his contract is up!
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5-21-2009 @ 7:05PM
cewlteach said...
Cavaliers all the way !!!!!!!!!!!
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5-21-2009 @ 7:31PM
Tom Yen said...
I think Lebron is a great player but I think he has a 25%percent chance like every other team still remaining. But about this back up player thing I think its kinda true. Mo William and Zryandous Illgauska (Im not sure how it spelled) are alright back up.!
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