Understandably, Cleveland is distraught over the Game 4 loss their Cavaliers suffered in Orlando Tuesday. Down 3-1, that's a big hole teams rarely fight back from. TNT touted that only eight teams in NBA history have ever came back to win series they trailed 3-1. On the surface, that's a long shot.But the Cavs, of course, aren't just any old team on the brink. Cleveland is a strong club, and there's actually a substantial probability the Cavs will win this thing.
Well, there's a substantial probability the Cavs will win this thing if you look at regular season performance -- all 82 games worth -- rather than the four games played in this series. While matchups play a huge role in the postseason, I tend to favor the greater data set the regular season provides.
This season, Cleveland had a Pythagorean winning percentage -- that's the team's expected winning percentage based on points margin, which ends up fairly close to actual winning percentage while differentiating between a 50-32 team who wins by an average of two points per game and a 50-32 team who wins by 10 points per game -- of 78.7 percent. Orlando's Pythagorean winning percentage was 72.3 percent. Home-court advantage in the NBA has been estimated at about 60 percent, based on the last several decades of data. That is to say if Team A and Team B are complete equals, Team A would be expected to win 60 percent of its home games against Team B, and vice versa.
We use these figures to estimate a win probability, or the statistical likelihood a given team will win a game. Based on these regular season figures and not taking into account the issues unique to this particular matchup, Cleveland has a 68 percent probability of winning Game 5 at home.
But Cleveland has to win two more home games ... and one in Orlando. And Cleveland cannot lose any of those three games. Cleveland's win probability in Orlando (again, based on regular season numbers) is 48.5 percent. What's the probability of a string of three wins against Orlando, two of the games at home?
That'd be about 22%. Far better than a puncher's chance.
For perspective, the Clippers had less than a 22 percent probability of winning the No. 1 pick in the 2009 NBA Draft. The Clippers won the lottery. Twice. (After the Clippers won No. 1, the balls were returned to the hopper and a new set was drawn. It was a Clippers combo.) So Cleveland definitely has a shot here.
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
5-27-2009 @ 6:26PM
carmichaelhtg said...
Are you freakin nuts? Orlando would have swept this series if not for a lucky last second 3 point jumper from LeBron. I love the Cavs & Lebron is possibly the best player of our time, but without help from the bench and other team mates LeBron and the Cavs haven't a prayer to win this series. The percentage is a meager 4% chance of winning a series when down 3-1 in the NBA.
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5-27-2009 @ 10:03PM
djpmac said...
This series could very easily be 3-1 in favor of the cavs..
5-27-2009 @ 6:27PM
the cooker said...
Tom, you have been smoking some real bad weed if you believe what you wrote.
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5-27-2009 @ 6:37PM
Lou said...
yeah!!!! whut they said dick. whut r u some kind of lebron james nut holder? have u even wathed the series? shit, even w/ howard on the bench next game IF we lose him, were still gonna win.
do ur self a favor, get a real 9-5 dude. cuz ur not that good a sports writer.
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5-27-2009 @ 6:48PM
obamaizadope said...
Don't bury the Cavs yet. Wow, that's funny. You should be writing about soccer, son..
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5-27-2009 @ 6:52PM
Seth said...
Yeah, Tom. What are you, some kind of nut holder? Put down those nuts.
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5-27-2009 @ 7:23PM
bmurph014 said...
Teams playing on a Thurday, on either ESPN2 or TNT, when the opposing team is at least 319.43 miles away, when tipoff is after 8 PM, when the temperature is above 63 degrees, when the DOW JONES went up that day, and when a person sitting courseat is wearing blue socks, have a 81.1% chance of winning.
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5-27-2009 @ 8:00PM
veyron3k3 said...
Yr delusional!!
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5-27-2009 @ 8:04PM
chevans1960 said...
I've been watching basketball for almost 40 yrs, and I've got to say something. It sure looks like the Referees are trying to influence the outcome of this series.
The Calls are just rediculously slanted in Clevelands favor. I've never seen anything like it before.
It's just not right. All the Fans should be very upset. These teams aren't playing on a level playing field. Cleveland is getting so much help from the referees it's unbelievable.
I think the government needs to look into this. This is just coruption. I like Lebron as well as the next guy, but come on David Stern. You should be arrested. Because what your pulling is just criminal. I don't know if the Vegas casinos have threatened you or what, but come on man.
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5-27-2009 @ 8:27PM
sonchopanza said...
i suppose you want us to waste taxpayer money investigating steroid too, oh yeah we did that already. who cares, it's a game! anybody who gambles should know the risk anyhow. I want my government to worry about shit that counts. who cares who does steroids? Who cares if refs blow calls? you guys want purity then go coach a little league team. Professional sports is a business and it is BAD business to have Orlando and Denver in the finals, period. kinda boring too!!
5-27-2009 @ 10:06PM
djpmac said...
Cant be any worse then having to read that useless post.. The officials are equally bad. Please see all the charges/blocking calls of game two. They dont have an agenda or are trying to influence this series.
5-27-2009 @ 8:22PM
pemfred said...
They need to stop calling Pro Basketball a sport and call it a Sports entertainment like wrestling because the calls just aren't real. It's messed up. The Ref's are being payed to get Lebron through to the finals.
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5-27-2009 @ 8:31PM
vandervoorts said...
do you realize how much money will be lost with a orlando/denver series? ratings will be so low that most people would rather watch the cooking channel
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5-27-2009 @ 8:40PM
gsmrmm said...
Writer been sniffing too much LeBron gas...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eBV_NielxFI
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5-27-2009 @ 8:42PM
loller23 said...
why must everyone hate like this?
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5-27-2009 @ 8:44PM
loller23 said...
that was a retarded article though... lol
5-27-2009 @ 8:49PM
hdattach said...
I wish they would at least make an effort to call the games fair. It makes it no fun to watch. Call off the Ref.s and lets play basketball. Let the Cavs try and win it on thier own merits. If they lose they lose. but, so be it. If Lebron does make it to the finals then they will always be tainted. Like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Everyone will know it wasn't real. They will have to put an asterisk next to Lebrons name and the Cavs too.
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5-27-2009 @ 9:01PM
cavsman25 said...
We Believe
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5-27-2009 @ 9:57PM
keithstbird said...
I still think the Cavs will win the series I hate playoff basketball thought I think it is bs that the home team gets all the calls last nights game there were so many bad fouls called against cleveland and it is rediculous. Another thing is that I think that Howard should be suspended again all he does is throw elbows at peoples faces 2 games in a row he has done it and gotton away with it hes a dirth fuck just like Kode that over rated asshole but anyways we will see what happens tomorrow night I choose cavs to blow them out
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5-27-2009 @ 11:13PM
klhgobucs said...
Why are so many people in the media in denial that maybe, just maybe, the Cavs aren't as good as they want them to be. Instead of slamming Lebron's teammates, and grasping at straws to come up with some hope that can still win, how about one of you "journalists" give some respect to the Magic? I think they've earned some.
Hell, the Cavs should be thankful that the games have been as close as they've been. I've never seen such biased refereeing in my life.
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