The Statistical Case for Courtney Lee

It's hard to set Game 1 of the NBA Finals aside, given that the Lakers blow-out counts just as much as either subsequent squeaker. But Adonal Foyle of the Magic has admitted the Game 1 atmosphere "suffocated" his team, so I feel better about assuming Games 2 and 3 tell us more about these teams going forward.

With that in mind, I decided to take a look at which players have performed best in the two close games using two different types of measurements: a weighted box score metric developed by John Hollinger, and the ever-controversial plus-minus. Who looks good in both? Neither? A mixed bag? Results can be found after the jump.

Obviously, the last two games have been tight affairs, so the aggregate two-game plus-minus figures for the players are pretty tightly bunched -- the best is a +6, the worst a -6. Surely, if we'd included Game 1 in this study, we'd reach much, much higher ... and lower.

The box score measure I'm using is Hollinger's Game Score, which is a simplified version of the same writer's Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Basically, 15 or higher is good. Above 20 is All-Star level. The closer to zero, the worse the performance according to the basic box score. Plus-minus, as you'll know, measures the score when a player is in the game. If Courtney Lee plays the first five minutes of a game and the Magic led 10-8 when he exits, his plus-minus for that stint is +2.

Here's a scatter plot of the average Game Scores (weighted by minutes) and aggregate plus-minus for all the players (except 17-second wonder D.J. Mbenga) in Games 2 and 3.



According to Game Score, three players -- Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Rashard Lewis -- have been better than Kobe Bryant over the last two games. Based on the reaction to Kobe's Game 3 second half, this should not be surprising. That Kobe has a negative plus-minus (-1) over the two games -- and only one Laker, Andrew Bynum, has a figure worse (-3) -- is a bit of a gasp. Of course, we're dealing with a very tight collection of plus-minus numbers here -- Kobe has the second-worst Laker plus-minus at -1, while Gasol has the second-best at +1. This is a tight, tight collection that doesn't mean a whole lot, to be honest.

But we can still find interesting notes here. Like Lee. His box scores have been bad: six points, two rebounds, a turnover and a steal over 32 minutes in Games 2 and 3. But he's doing something right, racking up a +6 over that span, equal to that of the obviously vital Howard. I think the careful observer would point out Lee's fantastic second half defense in Game 3. Sure, he got called for a few fouls he could/should have avoided. But he was a monster on Kobe, a constant aggravation it seemed.

Howard's singular presence as a top rated player in both measures stands out. Conversely, Bynum has done poorly by both metrics. Coming into the series, Bynum's defense on Howard was seen as a key. Howard is shooting better than 62% over the past two games, and has shot 25 free throws. The post defense has not been stellar of late. Meanwhile, Bynum is offering almost nothing at the other end (hence the low Game Score, a predominantly offensive measure).

This doesn't much tell us where we're headed, but it does show me that 1) Bynum has been a failure to this point while Lamar Odom has been great, and 2) despite his lack of size, Lee might be the best Kobe foil in this series. We'll see how the adjustments play out in Game 4.