Revisiting the 2007 NBA Draft

FanHouse fixes a decade of draft-day blunders in Revisiting the NBA Draft.

Hard to believe that several NBA general managers can have regrets after two years, but it's true. The results of the 2007 NBA Draft are slowly reaping, which should teach a lesson to their 2009 brethren on Thursday about taking chances on raw college players, international prospects and even those who are allegedly "proven."

The biggest debate two years ago was whether the Portland Trail Blazers should take Greg Oden or Kevin Durant first overall. Oden was a franchise center out of Ohio State while Durant was the smooth scoring swingman from Texas. Durant had the better workout with the Blazers, apparently blowing the mind of coach Nate McMillan. Yet, the Blazers stuck with conventional thinking and took the big man.

That left Durant for the Seattle SuperSonics, about to embark on their final year in Seattle. And Durant ran away with the Rookie of the Year award after Oden was felled by knee surgery. So what would the Blazers do if they had to do it again? Oden is on his way back, but there is serious question as to whether he is physically capable of being an All-Star caliber center.

So let's get into the mind of Portland general manager Kevin Pritchard. Durant, save a couple of erratic shooting games, has made a near-flawless transition to the NBA and would have been an All-Star this season had Oklahoma City grabbed more victories. Oden struggled through his rookie season with injuries and still lacks a consistent post game.

If the Blazers stuck with Joel Pryzbilla at center, drafted Durant and teamed him with Brandon Roy, would they be more successful? Probably. So Pritchard goes with Durant first.


The Sonics are next and new general manager Sam Presti wants to make a splash but loves the steadiness of Florida center Al Horford, who fits right in with his defensive philosophy. Any team could use Horford, and the Sonics opt for his consistency. That leaves Oden to Atlanta and the Hawks finally get their big man who, when healthy, could become the franchise center many expected.

The Memphis Grizzlies took Mike Conley, Oden's prep and Ohio State teammate. His transition to the NBA has been slow, so instead Memphis takes Jeff Green, who has vastly improved in his first two seasons with the Sonics/Thunder. The Celtics took Green fifth and traded him to Seattle for Ray Allen. If Boston GM Danny Ainge could keep the pick, he'd take Eastern Washington guard Rodney Stuckey, somewhat of an unknown because he played in the Big Sky but the best point guard in the draft to date. In real life, Stuckey fell to Detroit at 15.

The Bucks followed by taking Yi Jianlian and we saw how that worked out. He lasted one year in Milwaukee before being dealt to New Jersey. Instead, GM Larry Miller takes seasoned Florida State swingman Al Thornton, who has exceeded expectation with the Los Angeles Clippers. Yi wasn't ready for the NBA and has battled injuries.

The Timberwolves took Florida forward Corey Brewer, and its uncertain whether he's part of Minnesota's future since he's coming off a torn ACL. Wilson Chandler dropped to the New York Knicks at 23 but has proven to be a potential star, so the Wolves nab him over Brewer. The Warriors continued their bad habit of drafting or trading for players in the development stages by dealing for North Carolina forward Brandan Wright, who has yet to prove he can consistently play in the NBA. Wright was drafted by Charlotte and traded to Golden State for Jason Richardson. It's questionable why Golden State takes younger players when it's apparent that Don Nelson frowns on playing them.

So the Bobcats take Oregon guard Aaron Brooks, who showed his talents during the just-concluded playoffs for Houston. The Bulls reluctantly settled on Joakim Noah with the ninth pick; he's met expectations but lacks the upside of Georgia Tech freshman Thaddeus Young, who the Bulls wouldn't pass over given another chance.

The Sacramento Kings took Washington freshman Spencer Hawes, who benefited from the Brad Miller trade to Chicago, and they'll stick with him. He averaged 15.4 points and 8.4 rebounds in his final 10 games.

Atlanta virtually wasted the second of its two lottery picks on Acie Law of Texas A&M, who was tabbed the most NBA-ready point guard of this class. It would have been considered a major reach then, and caused then GM Billy Knight major criticism, but we live in fantasy here. So the Hawks take Ramon Sessions, who has flourished in two seasons in Milwaukee.

The Sixers can't take Young since he's gone so they decide on Conley to eventually replace Andre Miller. Conley could be a standout guard soon but is still in the development stage. The New Orleans Hornets opted for Kansas sophomore Julian Wright, who has averaged four points in two years. The Hornets decide on Nick Young, who would have helped more than Wright.

Finally, since Thornton is gone, the Clippers finish the lottery by taking Rudy Fernandez, who was taken 24th behind Sean Williams, Marco Bellinelli and Jason Smith.


2007

The way it was:

1) Greg Oden – Portland
2) Kevin Durant – Seattle
3) Al Horford – Atlanta
4) Mike Conley – Memphis
5) Jeff Green – Boston
6) Yi Jianlian – Milwaukee
7) Corey Brewer – Minnesota
8) Brandan Wright – Charlotte
9) Joakim Noah – Chicago
10) Spencer Hawes – Sacramento
11) Acie Law– Atlanta
12) Thaddeus Young – Philadelphia
13) Julian Wright – New Orleans
14) Al Thornton – Los Angeles Clippers

The way it should have been:

1) Kevin Durant – Portland
2) Al Horford – Seattle
3) Greg Oden – Atlanta
4) Jeff Green – Memphis
5) Rodney Stuckey – Boston
6) Al Thornton – Milwaukee
7) Wilson Chandler – Minnesota
8) Aaron Brooks – Charlotte
9) Thaddeus Young – Chicago
10) Spencer Hawes – Sacramento
11) Ramon Sessions – Atlanta
12) Mike Conley – Philadelphia
13) Nick Young – New Orleans
14) Rudy Fernandez – Los Angeles Clippers