NBA Execs: Shrinking Salary Cap Changes 2010 Plans

ORLANDO -- The Summer of 2010, which was supposed to be the mother load of all NBA free-agent classes, won't be the thriller that many anticipated.

The free spending just won't exist, according to several league executives and agents at the Orlando Pro Summer League Thursday.

News this week that the league is anticipating a dramatic drop in both the salary cap and the punitive luxury tax threshold for the 2010-11 season has sent a chill through every team in the league.

Although almost half the NBA teams had been shuffling future contracts to clear salary cap space in anticipation of a free agent feeding frenzy in 2010, many of those plans are looking rather bleak today.

A class that is expected to include LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Dwyane Wade, Amare Stoudemire, Dirk Nowitzki, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Michael Redd and Steve Nash among others might not attract the bidding wars that many had hoped.

"A lot of teams that thought they were going to have significant cap space are not going to have it now,'' said New Jersey Nets president Rod Thorn. "I think it's going to really affect what might happen next summer.''

Thorn was just one of several who shared his belief.

"It's going to change the way people look at that class,'' said Magic general manager Otis Smith. "People that thought they would have a lot of money to spend aren't going to have it now.''

While the salary cap from last season to this upcoming one will drop from $58.6 to just $57.7, the anticipated dip for the following year would be more dramatic, falling as low as $50-$53 million, according to a memo sent from the league office to all its teams.

The luxury tax threshold, which many teams are adamant about avoiding, will dip from $71.1 million this season to as low as $61-$65 million by the 2010-11 season, according to the same memo.

"This is a little bit of uncharted water we're entering,'' said Oklahoma City Thunder general manager Sam Presti. "I think its hard to predict what's going to happen a full calendar year from now, but we're all aware of what's going on with the economy. This is not a time to be overly aggressive.''

The shrinking salary cap and lowered luxury tax limits means it's less likely that free agents will be changing teams. A team generally can exceed the salary cap as much as it wants to re-sign it's own free agent. Signing someone else's free agent requires a team to have room under the cap to fit his first-year salary.

It's likely that teams like New York or New Jersey that thought they would have room to sign as many as two star players to the league maximum might only have enough room for one. And the lowered luxury tax means fewer teams will be part of the bidding process.

"I think this will really cut down the free-for-all that you expected,'' said Keith Glass, longtime player agent. "Teams that were gearing up for next summer will have less money available. Teams that were thinking two are now thinking one. Everything goes down.''