It's July 1, 2011. The Timberwolves have added only a second-round pick in the June draft ... but hope to get much better by adding the 21-year-old Euroleague MVP, Ricky Rubio, to the team. Corey Brewer is a restricted free agent, and Kevin Love is eligible for an extension. But the real focus is on Rubio, a gifted passer who has blossomed into an uncanny playmaker while developing in Barcelona.There's just one problem: the league's owners have locked out the players. The union and ownership couldn't hash out a new collective bargaining agreement over the previous two summers, and the 2011-12 season is in jeopardy. The Wolves are not allowed to ink Rubio to his rookie deal, because there's no guarantee he'll have a team to play for if he ditches Barcelona.
With all the uncertainty swirling around the NBA, Rubio declines his Barcelona buyout option before the August deadline, and stays in Spain another year. Or longer. This, surely, wasn't what David Kahn had in mind.
Perhaps the above scenario is far-fetched, and we should all (as NBA fans) hope that it is. You think normal offseasons are bad? Triple the dead period in size, and you have the 1998 lock-out. But beyond that, lockouts and strikes damage the sports we love; they may at times be necessary, but they still suck. No one should hope for a lockout.
But it's a real possibility, according to anonymous executives -- so real that the league and union will meet this month for the second time to discuss the next CBA, a contract which won't expire for two years. There are real and massive issues to work out: player salaries, revenue sharing, draft rules, free agency rules -- basically everything about the NBA, save the size of the hoop, is on the table.
And if a lockout does begin on July 1, 2011, what's Rubio supposed to do? The plan now is that he will be able to get out of his Barcelona contract cheaply in 2011. But if there's no NBA to jump to, there's no point in opting out of a lucrative contract. I'm not aware of how his buy-out options will be structured past 2011 -- one would assume the dollar amount drops every season, though that's not always been the case.
So maybe it will be 2012, then, when Rubio comes over. At that point, he can sign his rookie deal. (See update below.) For about $3 million a season. The Wolves surely hope Rubio blossoms in Spain, that the team's commitment by way of trading for and using a high draft pick pays off with a great player. You think Europe, which has no communal salary cap, might be willing to pay more than $3 million for Rubio's services? You think Rubio might rather choose his destination rather than be forced to play for the Wolves?
As it stands, Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry and Jonny Flynn can begin their second contracts -- the lucrative ones -- in 2013-14. By virtue of staying in Spain for two years, Rubio has put off his second NBA contract until 2015-2016 (when Rubio will be 25). Every season he stays away adds another year. It must be frightening for the fan-base, knowing how many chips are stacked against the team given all the competing interests.
Kahn will tell us that this is good for the Wolves, but I don't imagine he aimed to draft the 2012 Rookie of the Year. He aimed to draft a player that can help the Wolves win, and by extension help Kahn keep his job. Al Jefferson won't be young forever.
UPDATE: As pointed out by @Norsktroll, if a player does not sign with the team which drafted him for three seasons -- as would be the case if Rubio waits until July 2012 to come over -- the team can disregard the rookie scale and treat the player like a free agent, using its cap space to offer a contract. In this case, Rubio would be able to sign a contract similar to those of the other 2009 lottery picks in 2012. But the Wolves wouldn't get him until 2012, and he'd be more expensive than he would be otherwise. So my point remains: this sucks for the Wolves.
