FanHouse Preview: Bobcats

FanHouse previews all 30 NBA teams in advance of the 2009-10 season.

The Bobcats are a playoff contender. I know it sounds weird. If you need to take a few minutes to repeat that to yourself in order to suspend belief in pursuit of finishing this column, feel free. I'll wait.

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Ready? Okay, let's begin. The Bobcats are a playoff contender, and have been since Larry Brown decided to dump his best player (Jason Richardson) to Phoenix for jack-of-all-trades-master-of-awkward-spacing Boris Diaw and older than dirt Raja Bell. When that trade occurred, there was universal questioning of what in the carolina blue blazes Larry Brown was thinking. You don't ditch your best player!

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But Brown understood a resounding principle of rebuilding/makeovers/reconfigurations. Whatever the core pillar is of the function that is not being successful, it is the first thing that must go. It definitely made sense to question the team at the time. How could Diaw, a notorious gap drifter, a player specifically not known for his toughness, focus, or leadership, thrive on a Larry Brown team? How could he make Emeka Okafor and Gerald Wallace better? And it was at this point that we were forced to remember something we had forgotten since Larry Brown took the job in New York. Larry Brown is a very smart basketball dude.

From the time Diaw and Bell were traded to the Bobcats through March 31st, the Bobcats went 27-24. In that span they knocked off the Lakers twice, Detroit, Phoenix, and Atlanta, and came within an Adam Morrison mustache hair of knocking off the Spurs. They had actually pulled themselves into the playoff race. Then came April. A disastrous, heartbreaking loss the Celtics started a 1-7 slide to end the year, with the Cats facing six playoff teams out of that final eight. And we're talking Boston, Orlando, and a killer game against the surging Bulls. In the end, the Bobcats simply didn't have enough to get over that final hump.

Over the summer, the Bobcats drafted Gerald Henderson, and then traded franchise center Okafor and his massive newly minted contract to the Hornets for Tyson Chandler, another move universally panned. So the prospects for this season aren't much better than last season. And the Bobcats certainly aren't going to be contending for any sixth seed in a newly stacked East. They're still lacking guard depth, Wallace is arguably their best player and he spends a ton of time on the shelf. Chandler's foot is a serious concern. But the question remains, how will Brown get this team to play: to their talent, or above it?

What no one factored into the Diaw trade was his ability to facilitate the interior passing game. Chandler may not have Chris Paul dishing to him anymore, but Diaw can go low, force a double-team, and then dump off to Chandler as he did to Okafor. With another year in the system, you have to expect the Bobcats' anemic offense to gain some sense of flow. Gerald Wallace can still stuff the stat sheet. But this year's final record will come down to one player. D.J. Augustin.

Augustin was expected to have a miserable first year. A rookie point guard, under Larry Brown? That's right next to waterboarding. But instead, Augustin seemed to flourish under the rigid demands of Brown. He wound up with a 14.9 PER, just .1 below the league average, which is rare for rookies. His defense was terrible, but he's a rookie. That happens. Augustin showed flashes of playmaking ability tempered with rookie uneasiness. If you factor his progression, it could be quite the boon for the Bobcats. Having a scoring game-manager to go alongside Raymond Felton would provide multiple players at each position who can play multiple dimensions. Which is pretty much how Brown wants to run things. Everyone able to do everything all the time.

You can tell from interviews that Brown doesn't have extremely high hopes for this squad. But even a playoff birth would be a major step for a franchise on the brink of financial ruin, who have been beset with poor draft choices and a fanbase still hurting from the departure of the Hornets. If Brown can just steady the ship, get some production out of Henderson and have Flip Murray just match last year's efficient production, his backcourt is set, and suprisingly cheap. If Chandler can get healthy, Wallace can stay healthy, and Diaw continues to lead, his frontcourt features three multi-faceted, talented guys. There are a lot of ifs on this team, but Brown has proven with Charlotte that he's willing to take chances as long as there's a chance the team will play more "the right way."

A disastrous start for the Cats could spiral the team into a year-long funk, ending with Brown jettisoning off into retirement again while the franchise is sold. A playoff run could push some air back into the city's professional basketball lungs. And another year of mediocrity might be the worst, and most likely, result of all. We'll have to see how the ifs shake out, before we know if the Bobcats will make anything out of this season.

Last Season By the Numbers

Record: 35-47 under Larry Brown. Finished 4th in the Southeast Division, 10th in the Eastern Conference.

Offense: 104.7 points per 100 possessions, 27th in the NBA. 19th in shooting, 30th in turnover rate, 10th in offensive rebounding, 19th in free throw rate.

Defense: 106.1 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA. 13th in shooting defense, 5th in opponent turnover rate, 18th in defensive rebounding, 15th in opponent free throw rate.

Top Performers: Gerald Wallace played 71 games, and averaged a team-high 16.6 points and 1.7 steals per game. Traded Emeka Okafor led the team in per-game rebounding (10.1) and blocks (1.7). Boris Diaw finished second in scoring (15.1 points), third in rebounding (5.9) and second in assists (4.9). Raymond Felton led the team with 6.7 assists per game.

All statistics via Basketball-Reference.com.

Player to Watch

FanHouse's Matt Moore and Tom Ziller preview one player to watch from each team. Here's a snippet of Moore's post on Bobcats forward Boris Diaw.

Diaw's a jack of all trades, master of none. He's extremely capable of handling a variety of roles, including low and high post, perimeter, catch and shoot, and working the glass on both sides. He's not a fantastic player, and can easily be overwhelmed by a superior player and removed from the flow of the game. But when he's working in every phase of the game and adjusting, it's hard to compensate, which also frees the other players up.

See Moore's full post on Diaw.

Offseason Tracker

IN: Gerald Henderson (draft), Derrick Brown (draft), Robert Vaden (draft), Tyson Chandler (trade).

OUT: Emeka Okafor (trade).