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The Forest Surrounding Andre Iguodala's Tree

Philadelphia really needed to keep Andre Iguodala at just about all costs, both in order to contend for a title and to avoid another season of "Willie Green, NBA starter." The money's high, but the 76ers hardly had better options. If Iguodala was planning on holding out for $80 million, well Molly just pay the man.

Of course, contracts don't get signed inside a vacuum. (That'd be awesome, though! I'd have a use for my astronaut pen.) In looking at the greater landscape, we can assess how much milk Philly got for its salt. The following graph shows each Class of '04 product whom signed a contract (this summer or last) in excess of $50 million. Average salary is shown in green. We descend from Dwight Howard at $15.8 million to Andris Biedrins at $10.5 million. The players' 2007-08 PER adjoins and is shown in (a pitiful approximation of) the players' team colors.



Iguodala received the second richest contract in this class. But based on 2007-08, four players who signed a smaller deal -- Al Jefferson, Kevin Martin, Josh Smith and Biedrins -- are as good as or better than Iguodala. In other words, the Sixers didn't get great value for Iguodala. Consider that Martin is a measure better and will make $11.5 million less over the next five years. Smith is two years younger than 'Dala, basically even on production today, and will make $10 million less over the next six years.

It's worth noting that the two best values among the Class of '04 elite -- Jefferson and Martin -- were signed last summer. So much for the unassailable power teams supposedly have in restricted free agency.

Could a Reunited U.S.S.R. Beat Team USA?

As the "rest of the world" catches up to the United States in the sport of basketball, it seems worth considering how other world events have impacted the global hoops scene. Namely, the end of Communist imperialism has split up a few would-be basketball powers.

Consider the former U.S.S.R., which includes present day nations Russia, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, the Ukraine and more. Lithuania is among the best teams going into the Olympic hoops tournament. Russia is the reigning European champion, having beat Spain in Spain last summer. Here's a sample starting line-up for the mythical Team U.S.S.R.

Sarunas Jasikevicius: The top non-NBA point guard in the world.
Ramunas Siskauskas: The reigning Euroleague MVP.
Linas Kleiza: A top-flight scorer and rebounder from the forward position.
Andrei Kirilenko: The best Russian ever to play in the NBA.
Andris Biedrins: $63 million.

Off the bench: Zaza Pachulia, Darius Songaila, Viktor Khryapa, Martynas Andriuskevicius, Arvydas Macijauskas, maybe Zydrunas Ilgauskas, if he disobeys the Cavaliers. That's not a gold medal team perhaps. But it is sure good enough to make Team USA sweat.

Team Yugoslavia wouldn't be as potent, though a Beno-Sasha-Peja-Nenad-Darko squad actually looks pretty good.

Warriors Have a Deal With Biedrins, Which Is Awesome for Them

No, silly Europeans, Andris Biedrins is for Nellie!

The Warriors shored up their remaining free agent quandary today, according to the infinitely reliable Marc Stein over at the WWL. Stein says the Dubs have given Biedrins a 6 year, $63 million contract, with a player option for the fifth year. Tim Kawakami respectfully disagrees with Stein's report on the amount, putting the number at $54 million. Six years, $54 million seems a little more reasonable for the top big man on a team that was, you know, kind of terrible at both defense and rebounding. Still, Don Nelson is big on Biedrins, and after Baron Davis absconded to LA, the Warriors needed to shore up their roster in-house.

It's unknown at this point what effect Biedrins' position on the NBA Overseas Defection Watch had on the urgency for the Warriors to get the deal done, if any, but anyway, go ahead and cross him off the list. And, barring injury or a team losing their mind in a trade (we're looking at you, Atlanta), this should pretty much lock up the Warriors roster next year, with both Anthony Randolph and Richard Hendrix signed. So for better or worse, it's Monta Ellis, Kelenna Azubuike, and Andris Biedrins resigned, Mickael Pietrus and Baron Davis gone with the wind, and Corey Maggette and Ronny Turiaf newly acquired. Your guess is as good as ours as far as next season goes.
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NBA Overseas Defection Watch List Update: Deng, Finley Say No, Gordon Next?

For those of you wondering, we ask that you keep an eye on that tongue of ours which is firmly tongue in cheek on this list we're compiled. It's not like we're waiting on LeBron James to say "Nah, thanks. I hear Moscow's lovely this time of year." But it's an interesting story, and really, it's the slow part of the offseason. Plus, it definitely looks like there's interest from the clubs overseas in at least exploring offers, even if they're not all being accepted with Josh Childress' zeal. Here's a little review.

Okay, so like we said, Machine (Sasha Vujacic) no want Europe dollar. He like America, with shoes and parties and McDonalds.

We find this morning over at the Sporting News that a European club "that's been in the news a lot lately" had its eyes on veteran Spurs shooter Michael Finley. Finley declined however, as it was "not something Michael wants to do at this point in his career" according to his agent. So mark another one off the list, but note the Euroclub approaching a veteran.

Biedrins Has His Eyes on Europe, Too

Andris BiedrinsYou know that ever-expanding list of NBA players who have made or are thinking of making the jump to Europe? Add another to the list: Andris Biedrins.

Biedrins is still trying to get a contract out of the Warriors, and while he hasn't actively pursued any European opportunities, Rade Filipovich, one of his agents, told Sporting News last night that at least three Russian teams have been in contact with him. And let's face it, if push comes to shove and the Warriors balk at giving Biedrins a Monta Ellis-sized contract, returning to his home continent wouldn't be very hard at all for the Latvian native:
"Russia is not far for him," Filipovich said. "The language, all of that. It would almost be like going home for him."
Given the recent wave of NBA players cashing in their dollars for Euros, it'd be foolish for the Warriors to take a hardline attitude with Biedrins during negotiations. At the very least, the team ought to consider a sign-and-trade, since merely holding onto his rights after he leaves for Europe wouldn't be a cap-friendly decision, either.

Most likely, all of this talk will be for nothing as I fully expect the Warriors to man up and give Biedrins a fair market offer -- it's just that the "market" for NBA-caliber players has greatly expanded over the last several weeks.

Can Monta Ellis Run the Point?

After losing Baron Davis and losing out on Elton Brand, most pundits have quickly assumed the Warriors would stay true to their lottery roots for the immediate future. Chris Mullin insists he'll be able to keep restricted free agents Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins, and the likelihood of the Lakers matching Ronny Turiaf's offer sheet looks smaller and smaller each day. Corey Maggette is in town, and Don Nelson has been saying Ellis will be able to play point full-time for the Dubs.

Could this team actually be pretty good?

If preseason prognostications are iffy, ones made in the middle of July are downright laughable. But hear me out. Davis was an elite point guard -- a potent scorer, an efficient ball-handler, a strong rebounder, and a good passer. His shooting, though, is suspect. Ellis is also a strong rebounder, he cut his turnovers way down last season, and he's almost as potent a scorer as Davis already, at age 22. While Ellis doesn't and probably will not rack up assists, he's a much more efficient shooter. He boasts no range but realizes this and refuses the three ... unlike Davis, who despite mediocre three-point shooting percentages his entire career still took a third of his shots from deep last year.

The central question that will decide the immediate success of the Warriors: do the other players need a point guard to set them up? Maggette is already a firm 'no.' He played with some unholy combination of Brevin Knight and decrepit Sam Cassell last year, and had some of the best scoring and shooting numbers of his already-strong career. Stephen Jackson's basically a point-forward who has little trouble creating.

Biedrins could use some inside dishes, but currently gets most of his production on clean-up duty. No one knows who will get the heavy minutes at power forward -- Al Harrington could be shipped out, Brandan Wright may or may not be ready, Turiaf figures to be a bench player.

Losing Davis hurts, because he combined with Ellis created one of the most potent backcourts in the league. But the quality of the new Warriors could surprise you. Depending on the rest of the West, Golden State could still threaten playoff contention.
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Golden State and the Pitfalls of a Clean Slate

Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News has been wearing out his keyboard this free agent season already, and today he comes with another piece peering into the decision-making of Chris Mullin and the Golden State Warriors.
[E]ven if the Warriors played this strategically and not frugally, even if they purposely wanted to get to this point of vast promise and uncertainty ... they've placed themselves in a terribly vulnerable position, no matter what. Things could work out. They could land Elton Brand or trade into a big-time player or wait it out and land somebody incredible in a summer or two. [...]

But a lot of this isn't in their control. Almost all of it. In the NBA, you want to have some sort of control with your own players–either you keep them or you trade them for more talent–and that has not and will not be happening with the Warriors this summer, unless all breaks perfectly for them.
Last summer, we made a big deal of Golden State's plans to get to a basically clean slate (salary-wise) this summer. Mullin set things up to be full of options -- do you pay both Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins? Do you move Baron Davis or extend him? Do you give it another shot to this nucleus or turn young?

But no one seemed to see this coming, the scenario in which Mullin's power (power of the dollar) gets jacked by a bold Baron decision and a wacky flux of free agent maneuvering by the Clippers and 76ers. It isn't to say Golden State is doomed -- Ellis, Biedrins and cap space are still chillin' in the cut, so to speak. But the Mighty Sword of Options has been parried, and there looks to be a real chance of the Warriors getting leftovers.

With Baron Loss, Golden State Continues Streak of Getting Nothing for Something

As I wrote last night, the worst part of losing Baron Davis for Golden State is getting nothing in return. Even if you don't want to pay Boom, he's clearly a coveted asset who could fetch a return of some sort on the trade market -- draft picks, a replacement guard, a young prospect, or a contributing veteran.

But that's not Golden State's style, as Jason Gurney of BallHype shows us. Over the past decade, the Warriors have received very little in return for their best performers. The top prize: Brandan Wright in exchange for Jason Richardson. Antawn Jamison yielding Nick Van Exel seems rather painful, in retrospect.

The Warriors can't even bank on getting decent cap space out of Baron's departure, as extensions for Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins will likely place the franchise perilously close to the projected $57 million cap level. The Warriors would have to split less than roughly $19 million next season between the pair of restricted FAs to be able to spend a few dollars more than the team's $5.5 million mid-level ... and this doesn't account for a third restricted FA, Kelenna Azubuike.

It's pretty hard to blame Chris Mullin for the outright loss of Baron -- what, was he supposed to trade him last summer? -- but again, playing hardball with your free agents (potential or otherwise) has its pitfalls.

Warriors Finish Out of the Playoffs, Future of Baron Davis Uncertain


In what was really just a formality, the Warriors lost in Phoenix last night, officially eliminating them from a spot in the postseason. Denver had effectively done this a night earlier by knocking off the Rockets, but now it's officially a mathematical impossibility for the Warriors to make the playoffs.


It was an interesting loss for the Warriors, considering the fact that in a must-win game, their coach sat the team's best player on the bench for the entire second half. Curious not only because you'd think you would need Baron Davis to get a win in Phoenix, but also strange when you realize that Baron can opt out of his contract this summer to become a free agent. Tim Kawakami wonders if there are issues between Davis and Don Nelson, or if it was just Nellie making a defensive adjustment.

[I wish I ] could be asking Don Nelson and Baron Davis right now what the heck happened tonight and then try to figure out if there will be lasting issues between the two.

Psst: Baron doesn't play the screen-roll well. And gets killed on it. Well, Monta Ellis is awful, so that kind of overshadows BD, but doesn't excuse it.

(I've asked Nelson about both of them a lot this season and he usually is happy to discus Ellis' defensive weaknesses but won't say much about Baron. Tonight he spoke with his actions. I'm assuming.)

Whether Baron's inability to defend the Suns' bread and butter play was the only reason for his benching, we'll never know. What we do know is that this is a huge summer for the Warriors. Baron can opt out (though I can't imagine him leaving $17M on the table), Monta and Biedrins are free agents, and Nellie might not be back either. Changes are afoot for this franchise, and when all is said and done, they might be for the worse, not the better.

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Will Nellie Stick Around? Should He?

The clock's winding down on Golden State, and as we've known since last fall, a summer of myriad decisions has arrived for the Warriors. Baron Davis can become a free agent. Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins are free agents. The club picked up Don Nelson's $5 million option to coach in 2008-09 ... but he hasn't yet indicated whether he'll be back. The three-headed bench monster that is Pietbarnesubuiketrus can fly away. Patrick "The Notorious P.O.B." O'Bryant is a goner. Stephen Jackson is considering running for Congress. The uncertainty is almost unsettling.

Nelson's decision could affect the lot of others. A Nellie retirement could lead to big contracts for Ellis and Biedrins (likely to happen either way), which would restrict Golden State's desire/ability to extend Boom long term to big dollars. (Monta and Beans are both 22, Baron turns 29 today. Happy birthday, Boom.) Add in that first-timer Keith Smart would likely take over for Nellie, as well as the missed playoffs this year and the proposed ascension of Portland ... the bright Oracle crowds don't look like a good bet for May 2009, do they? Baron's not going to get $15 million anywhere. But he could certainly opt out and try, a decision made easier if fun-lovin' Nellie's not around.

If Nellie's not here, and Baron's not here ... why on Earth would Jackson stick around? Jack's older than Baron and even further into the "veteran on a good team -- not a rebuilder" niche. After a rather remarkable 18-month run in Oaktown, suitors will pop up for Jack in the trade market. If Chris Mullin thinks he isn't a fit with a less competitive but young and fierce core, it wouldn't be surprising to see him shopped.

In all likelihood, this won't come to pass. Baron's unlikely to opt out (especially with Gilbert Arenas floating around), and Golden State can pay Ellis and Biedrins whatever they please as they are both restricted free agents. This very core (minus either Barnes or Pietrus, or both) could return, and Nelson could give it one more effort. But Nellie's an unpredictable guy. He's the domino, so we'll be watching his comments until he announces a decision.
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