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It's Officially Time to Start the 'NBA Overseas Defection Watch' List

"Oh, wow, Josh Childress jumped to Greece. That's wild. What a kooky thing to see. Man, what if this were to become a trend in a couple of years? How weird would that be? I mean, clearly it won't happen for a whi ... "

Oh.

Oh.

Oh.

For those of you playing our home game, that brings the list of players to have signed or be considering a jump overseas to: Josh Childress, Primoz Brezec, Carlos Delfino, Jorge Garbajosa, Carl Landry, Delonte West, and Sasha Vujacic. That's in the last week. Now clearly, it's not like there's going to be a mass exodus, this is still the NBA. Plus, as Al Horford asked Team USA about today, none of the megastars are going anywhere. But whereas after the Childress signing we asked, "could this be a trend over the next few years?", we now have to ask, "Is this a trend that's taking place now?"

It's clear that free agents, especially restricted free agents, are evaluating their options, and coming to the conclusion that Europe offers them a lot more opportunities than the NBA under the current CBA. The question now becomes how does the NBA respond? Increased agreements with international leagues for great fluidity back and forth? Higher reliance on the pitifully resourced D-League? Or the customary Stern brand of ignoring the problem until it's on fire in your yard? Is this a problem? This is a situation that's evolving faster than we can understand it, at least from where we're at right now.

Finding the Next Carl Landry

Bullets Forever has a great little look at a type of player they dub "Senor Propolo" -- second-round productive low-post players. This has been a pet cause of mine since last summer, when I spent half my free time building support for the Paul Millsap Doctrine, which argued that per-minute production in the NBA was a good indicator of talent level.

BF's championing of Senor Propolo takes a slightly different tact, looking specifically at short but strong college post players who end up producing just fine thankyouverymuch at the pro level. There have been big successes in each of the past three drafts, including Leon Powe, Ronny Turiaf, Brandon Bass and Millsap (yeah!). Carl Landry's the one who sticks out to me -- in Houston's run of almost two dozen straight W's, Landry sat right up there with McGrady and Scola in terms of importance. It's easy for us to ignore the garbage-can production of the Landry sort, but when offered consistently (that's the key), it's extremely valuable.

So who are the Propolos this year? BF argues for Richard Hendrix of Alabama and D.J. White of Indiana. Joey Dorsey misses the cut because his lack of offense, but in my view, even if he lacks a key Propolo attribute, he'd be a good pick in the second round based on his defense and rebounding.

NBA Reveals All-Rookie Teams

Kevin Durant and Al HorfordThe NBA revealed it's All-Rookie Teams today, and by and large there weren't any huge surprises. But can you guess who the only unanimous choice to the first team was? If you guessed Rookie of the Year Kevin Durant ... you'd be wrong.

Actually, it was Al Horford, who finished with 29 first-place votes. Durant finished with 28. It's too bad the ballots aren't open -- I'd love to see which NBA coach actually thought Durant was no better than the sixth-best rookie this year. (Remember, coaches can't vote for their own players but aren't limited by position.) Luis Scola (26 first place votes), Al Thornton (20) and Jeff Green (15) rounded out the first team.

On the second team is Jamario Moon (12), Juan Carlos Navarro (5), Thaddeus Young (4), Rodney Stuckey (5) and Carl Landry (1). Other players receiving first place votes include Joakim Noah (1), Nick Young (2), Mike Conley (1) and Corey Brewer (1).
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5 Things to Keep an Eye on: Rockets at Jazz, Game 6

In another of our continuing series, five things to keep an eye out for tonight in the Rockets-Jazz game tonight.

1. Home Is Where The Last Stand Is: Let's make this clear. Yes, Utah won Games 1 and 2 in Houston. But that was the old new Houston. This is the new new Houston. With Alston back, a nothing-to-lose attitude, Tracy McGrady resembling an actual player of substance, and a rotation starting to click again, a loss tonight in Utah for the team with the best home record would be an absolute disaster for the Jazz. There seems to be a prevailing current that this is a mere formality. Maybe I'm tempered by some anti-statutory-rape feelings. Maybe I'm tired of kicking dirt on the Rockets and promptly having their hand shoot out of the ground and attack me. Or maybe it's because all season long I've had the same feeling about this Jazz team. Good. Not great. And very succeptible to a hot team. A game seven would be nightmarish pressure for the Jazz, much the same way the Rockets felt (and whithered under) pressure last year in Game 7. The Jazz have to end this, tonight.

2. Bench Evaporation:
An excellent article out of the Salt Lake Tribune today brought up an excellent analysis about the Jazz bench: it's completely evaporated. Jerry Sloan is a pretty tight-reined coach. He's not going to let a lot go by. So if you're out there and you're not producing, he's going to yank you. Especially in a series as tense as this one has gotten. But if you're not playing, how do you work out of your slump? The Jazz need to be a force on the boards and on the perimeter. Paul Millsap and Kyle Korver can go a long way in that direction. They need to step it up tonight to end this.

The Jazz Have Been Suffocated

Last night's Houston-Utah Game 5 will get little play this morning, for three reasons: 1) D'Antoni's exit is a league-rattling event; 2) Dallas's loss will lead to a league-rattling shake-up; and 3) no one cares about defense. If Tracy McGrady had dropped 49 points, or Luis Scola earned a triple double? Then we'd hear about it. But if Houston holds the league's best offense to 69 points in 90 possessions (a pro-rated offensive rating of 76.7, which is about 20 points worse than the Knicks offense), forcing the Jazz to shoot 37% from the field and 22% from three, causing 18 turnovers? We should hear about this.

Houston's defense has been unbelievable all season (it finished second in the league behind Boston); but this work is likely the Rockets' best game of the season. The Game 3 win in SLC was solid, but it didn't remind you of Houston's 22-game win streak. This one did. The offense of McGrady and Scola got the bulk of the credit for the midseason roll. In actuality, the defense sparked the streak ... and that's largely in the hands of Shane Battier (who shot 1-for-8 and was still a +12), Rafer Alston, Dikembe Mutombo, and the bench duo of Chuck Hayes and Carl Landry. (Not to diminish Mac and Scola's roles in the defense -- they do their jobs, and McGrady's man D can be downright awe-striking in moments.)

Most may shrug at Houston's Game 5 victory -- even the Associated Press game story (linked above) leads the fourth paragraph with "Now, the Jazz can end the series at home, where they went 37-4 during the regular season." What a relief, a Game 6 at home! Whew, glad we just got out of Houston alive! Earth to ... um, Earth: Houston just destroyed Utah. Let's hold off on foregone conclusions for a minute, yes?

If Houston's defense plays like that again, Utah's going down.

5 Things to Keep an Eye on: Rockets at Jazz, Game 4

In another of our continuing series, five things to keep an eye out for tonight in the Rockets-Jazz Game 4 tonight.

1. Sustainable resources. Houston's one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league; Utah is the absolutely worst on the defensive glass. In Games 1 and 3, Houston was able to exploit this for tons of second-chance opportunities -- it didn't matter in Game 1, when the Rockets couldn't hit the broadside of Charles Barkley's ass; it was the difference, however, in Game 3 as Houston earned an almost remarkable 16 o-boards in 42 opportunities. Carl Landry and Luis Scola are the culprits here; Carlos Boozer and friends need to box out much better to keep Houston's wayfaring offense from bolstering it with easy buckets.

2. Retrospective exploration. Houston's vaunted defense (second best in the league this season) has had trouble slowing down Utah's vaunted offense. The Rockets are well equipped to contain an offense with a star wing scorer or a lanky post stud. But the Jazz offense is too diverse for easy solutions, and it's showed. Even in Houston's Thursday win, Utah's offense was strong, scoring 92 points in just 82 possessions. Rafer Alston's offense in Game 3 was beautiful, but he needs to make Deron Williams look less lovely to keep Utah's offense from romping.

Three more, after the jump.
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But Carl Landry Can't Block Rafer's Smooch!

Carl Landry's block on Deron Williams to seal Houston's win in SLC was (as Shoals notes at The Sporting Blog) the stuff of legends. (It might even be comparable to Tayshaun Prince's absurd block-from-behind on Reggie Miller earlier this millenia, insofar as a momentum-shifting play which catapaults an unheralded but excellent kid into some decent attention.) Landry was able to deny Deron, sure ... but he couldn't deny the missile-like desire of Rafer Alston. The one-minute mark is the ... sweet spot.



Via Awful Announcing.

Ladies and Gentlemen, We Have Series

I wasn't worried about it for a second. I knew this was still going to be one of the best playoffs in recent memory, maybe in the last decade. Too much energy, too much drama, too much talent. Yes, we'll have duds in Boston v. Atlanta and Lakers v. Denver, but across the board, after tonight, it's time to face the reality. These playoffs are more compelling than any we've seen in a while. Consider the following.

With the 36 point blowout win tonight, the Wizards not only look to be back into contention, but look like this is going to be a 12-round slobber-knocker, with each fighter taking a round wholly to assert themselves. The Cavs pounded the Wizards at home, the Wizards returned the favor, at least in the first game back in DC.

In the first two games, the Cavs were efficient, tonight they were anemic. In the first two games, DeShawn Stevenson was paper-bag material, tonight he and Roger Mason combined for 37 points. Even in a blowout, this series is compelling, if only to watch the vast momentum swings. For a series to truly be great, it has to have it's share of early blowouts. Suns-Spurs may be the only series that can survive seven grueling down to the wire games, and it may not get there if San Antonio delivers the death stroke tomorrow night. Washington-Cleveland, however, has both teams getting a feel for each other, delivering haymakers, and gearing up for the late games when things really get intense.

5 Things to Keep an Eye on: Jazz at Rockets, Game 2

In another of our continuing series, five things to keep an eye out for tonight in the Jazz at Rockets game tonight.

1. Bueller? Rafer?: So much for the speed of Aaron Brooks. Brooks' size was insufficient to deny Deron Williams and his passing lanes, and Bobby Jackson looked like he might as well have been wearing clogs against Williams. Rafer Alstonis not supposed to play tonight, and that could mean more T-R-O-U-B-L-E for the boys in red. The big problem is that with Steve Francis long ago put on the shelf, and Rafer still doubtful, the Rockets have no one with the skills necessary to guard Deron. They jump directly from inept guards to tall forwards. So they are limited in what they can do. And with the way the Jazz are spacing the floor, a trap is just too risky. The Rockets can't stop Deron, they can only hope to contain him.

2. Will The AK Firing Continue?: The big question on everyone's mind in this series is if Andrei Kirilenko will continue the kind of shooting that he displayed on Saturday night, scoring 21 points on 50% shooting. He torched the Rockets with everything from the outside games to the post and mid range jumpers. And all of this while holding Tracy McGrady to 20 points on 7 of 21 from the field. It's probably too much to ask for this every night from Kirilenko, but even if he only performs like this twice more, that could likely be the difference.
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5 Things to Keep an Eye on: Jazz at Rockets

In another of our continuing series, five things to keep an eye out for tonight in the Jazz at Rockets game.

1. You Gotta Fight For The Right To Boozer: Dikembe Mutumbo is a block machine, we all know this. But Carlos Boozer should be able to blow him away with offense. Thing is, Boozer has a tendency to run straight into guys bigger than him. Maybe he has a problem with physics. Boozer needs to work his inside out game and not try and force the issue.

2. Who ARE These Guys?:
Aaron Brooks. Carl Landry. Luis Scola. Who are they? You better learn them, because they have to help stop Memo Okur, Carlos Boozer, and Deron Williams. So that should be fun. The Rockets are in this crazy dance because of their bench contributors, and they're going to need a big effort from them tonight, in order to get a win, even at home.

3. Will The Real Memo Please Stand Up: We get it. Seven foot guys that can shoot the three ball. Cool. But at some point, Mehmet Okur going to need to get up and get dirty. He needs to establish the paint with Boozer and get Scola and Landry back on their heels. If he tries to play the finesse game, that plays right into the Rockets run and shoot game.
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