After losing Baron Davis and losing out on Elton Brand, most pundits have quickly assumed the Warriors would stay true to their lottery roots for the immediate future. Chris Mullin insists he'll be able to keep restricted free agents Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins, and the likelihood of the Lakers matching Ronny Turiaf's offer sheet looks smaller and smaller each day. Corey Maggette is in town, and Don Nelson has been saying Ellis will be able to play point full-time for the Dubs.

Could this team actually be pretty good?

If preseason prognostications are iffy, ones made in the middle of July are downright laughable. But hear me out. Davis was an elite point guard -- a potent scorer, an efficient ball-handler, a strong rebounder, and a good passer. His shooting, though, is suspect. Ellis is also a strong rebounder, he cut his turnovers way down last season, and he's almost as potent a scorer as Davis already, at age 22. While Ellis doesn't and probably will not rack up assists, he's a much more efficient shooter. He boasts no range but realizes this and refuses the three ... unlike Davis, who despite mediocre three-point shooting percentages his entire career still took a third of his shots from deep last year.

The central question that will decide the immediate success of the Warriors: do the other players need a point guard to set them up? Maggette is already a firm 'no.' He played with some unholy combination of Brevin Knight and decrepit Sam Cassell last year, and had some of the best scoring and shooting numbers of his already-strong career. Stephen Jackson's basically a point-forward who has little trouble creating.

Biedrins could use some inside dishes, but currently gets most of his production on clean-up duty. No one knows who will get the heavy minutes at power forward -- Al Harrington could be shipped out, Brandan Wright may or may not be ready, Turiaf figures to be a bench player.

Losing Davis hurts, because he combined with Ellis created one of the most potent backcourts in the league. But the quality of the new Warriors could surprise you. Depending on the rest of the West, Golden State could still threaten playoff contention.

As expected, hyphy superstar Ronny Turiaf signed an offer sheet with the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. The deal is being reported as $17 million over four years, and through the San Francisco Chronicle Turiaf's agent Mark Bartelstein indicates the contract is slight front-loaded ... which makes it tough to match for the Lakers.

Mitch Kupchak has seven days to make a decision whether to match. The Lakers are over the expected luxury tax threshold next season, so there's the whole 'dollar-for-dollar' penalty which would cost L.A. an extra $5 million in penalties in addition to Turiaf's salary. It's simplistic to equate this to "Turiaf costs the Lakers $10 million a year" -- Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom are more the reason for the tax payments than Turiaf and his (relatively) low-dollar brethren.

But Camp Turiaf might prefer L.A. takes the grumpy view of the tax implications. Bartelstein gives every indication that his dude would rather play in Golden State.

"He's got nothing but warm feelings for the Lakers, but the reality is that they have an overabundance of big guys," Bartelstein said. "Ronny wants to play and wants to find out how good a player he can be. I think the opportunity is much greater with the Warriors."

Officially, the only big man with NBA starts under his belt the Warriors have signed under contract is Al Harrington. Golden State's expected to bring restricted free agent Andris Biedrins back, and Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph wait in the wings. I'm not sure there's exactly a dearth of bigs in Golden State (who plays Stephen Jackson at the four half the time anyway), there's just a dearth of good ones.

This NBA free agency thing has been absolutely bonkers, hasn't it? Baron Davis opts out, signs with the Clippers. Elton Brand now has no reason to leave, as the Clips finally got him some help, so he goes ahead and ... signs with the Sixers for similar dollars. Huh? Corey Maggette, despite all the rumors, takes the big payday with Golden State.

And we're not finished. There's still the matter of Josh Smith and Andre Iguodala, as well as smaller pieces like James Posey, Sasha Vujacic, and Ronny Turiaf. Madness, people. Join me and my fellow FanHousers at 3PM EST to discuss.