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Hints About Spoelstra's Heat Line-up

One of the more intriguing questions floating around basketblog circles this summer has concerned Miami's frontcourt rotation. Shawn Marion has taken up permanent residency on the trade block, but most rumors involving Matrix have died before going public. It really does look like Marion will be in Miami to start the year.

So with longtime Heat forward Udonis Haslem (the team's best defender over the past few years), No. 2 pick Michael Beasley (a popular R.O.Y. choice) and Marion (one of the better defenders in the league, and an explosive match for Dwyane Wade) all needing minutes ... what does Erik Spoelstra do? Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald gets some hints from the rookie coach.
Spoelstra wants to use an undersized frontcourt of Udonis Haslem, Michael Beasley and Shawn Marion "at times, but it will depend on the matchup. I don't know about [using it] in large doses. I feel comfortable with Udonis playing some minutes at" center. He said he hasn't decided whether to open games with a traditional center (Mark Blount or Jamaal Magloire) or the smaller lineup with Haslem at center.

If Haslem starts at power forward, Beasley would come off the bench, because Spoelstra said he sees Beasley as a power forward "right now." (He said he's undecided whether Beasley will start.) He's equally comfortable with Marion at either forward spot.
There you go. I see no practical reason not to roll with the small line-up: Marion is an elite rebounder at power forward, and would be a 25-30% better rebounder than any other small forward in the league assuming his performance maintains at age 30. Haslem is a stellar rebounding forward, and would be at the lower end of average as a center. Beasley projects to be an elite rebounder.

Unless someone taught Blount how to defend this summer, or Magloire sold his soul, there's no way Miami's small line takes something off the table, save maybe a prospective bench scoring boost Beasley could offer.

NBA Top 50: Shawn Marion (No. 35)



FanHouse's Tom Ziller argues his ranking of the
top 50 players in the NBA.

Shawn Marion, he of simply otherworldly skills and a painfully shy persona, has landed outside Phoenix. That's old news, sort of: we saw him play about a month in Miami. It wasn't really real basketball. It counted in the books, but not in our hearts.

We've seen Matrix play a million minutes though, as Phoenix's undersung axle all those years, through Starbury and Steve Nash. Endless rebounds, steals like wine at a wedding in Yountville, that giggly threeball from the wing. He's been like a bottle of chloroform to the traditional worldview of a small forward, forcing us to expect more than just range, size and skills. Marion makes us dream of a League of LeBrons.

But now, with Nash so far away, has the feature film ended? Is Marion on the fast track to disappointment in Miami, and where ever he lands next summer? Let us peer into the mime's eye.

Do the Marion-Odom-Artest Shuffle

Several important developments for the United Mercurial Forwards, Local #77 this morning. First, in his already-discussed story on an episodic MALOOF SMASH!, Sam Amick of the Sacramento Bee tossed out a mention that Miami is believed to be interested in Ron Artest and willing to part with Shawn Marion to make it happen.

Shoals of The Sporting Blog relays Dwyane Wade's forlorn heartache over old pal Lamar Odom, though Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel holds back from suggesting any sort of franchise interest in a reunion.

Meanwhile, a prospective Odom-Artest swap remains plausible as it ever was.

Can't we work out an agreement which suits everyone here? Artest and Kenny Thomas (or Mikki Moore, see if I care) to Los Angeles, L.O. to Miami, Marion to Sacramento. Or flip it: Artest and KT (or Moore; I still don't care!) to Miami, Marion to L.A., Odom to Sacramento. The Kings will assume any expiring contract who can rebound, I'd guess. L.A. needs a defender in short-term; Artest and Marion both fits the qualifications. Miami should prefer Odom but the syntax of adding Artest would be much cleaner.

I don't know, can't we draw straws to get something done here?

FanHouse's Interview with Dwyane Wade


This morning, World Champion NBA guard and All-World charity machine Dwyane Wade took some time out of his busy day -- chillin' in the G2 lounge is hard work, people -- to answer some questions from FanHouse about blogging diarying, the Olympics, Mike Beasley, Supernintendo Chalmers, Zo's Summer Groove and his iPod.

Will Brinson: Dwyane, what's up, man? Good morning and thanks for taking time to chat with FanHouse.

Dwyane Wade: Good morning, Will. Thanks for having me on, man.

WB: For there not being any games on, the NBA is pretty hectic right now, and suddenly the East looks pretty tough, especially with yesterday's craziness. What are your thoughts on where the Heat stand for 2008-09 in terms of addressing needs at the draft and free agency to get back to where you guys were a few years ago?

DW: Well, we were very excited about the guys we picked up in the draft this year. You know Beasley has a chance to be special -- a great player -- and Chalmers is a guy that could shock a lot of people. I can't believe he even fell to the second round, to the 34th pick, so we're very, very excited about getting those two guys.

I think we approach free agency very cautiously as well. We have a couple names, a couple guys we're targeting. But it's all about putting the right pieces together, not about the big names every summer, it's about adding the right pieces to the team and Coach Riley has done a great job with that.

Might Marion Stay in Miami?

The most question-heavy subplot of the Shaq-Shawn Marion trade last February -- beyond what the Hades is Steve Kerr thinking?! -- was whether Matrix would be greeted in Miami with chocolates and flowers, or whether he'd be viewed as a salary cap liberator who would ply his expensive trade elsewhere in 2008-09. That question, for the past four months, has gotten further and further from explanation. The #2 pick in a draft in which the #2 pick is a potential franchise power forward tends to complicate things.

But Marion signing a multi-year deal to stay with the Heat seems more plausible than ever, based on a report from Michael Wallace of the Miami Herald.
Shawn Marion and the Miami Heat plan to resume negotiations this weekend on a possible extension. [...] The Heat and Marion had been in off-and-on negotiations for nearly a month. Riley had said the process was ''productive'' as recently as three weeks ago. But there appears to be a gap between the sides, and talks might have broken down recently.
Tuesday is the day Marion decides whether to opt out. You'd assume any contract extension would include Marion shrinking his 2008-09 salary (almost $18 million, egads!) while offering a bit of longer term security. Based on the numbers Wallace tosses out, Marion seems to want a three-year, $40-45 million deal. Miami seems to be looking at $30 million. That's a huge difference, and maybe not one which can be settled in the sort of protracted negotiations the sides can afford between today and Tuesday ... especially considering the whole little draft thing going on this week.

If they don't reach a deal, and Marion doesn't opt out: he could be up for grabs on Thursday night. The more trade chips available, the merrier.

Look at the Losers: Phoenix Suns


There's so much that's already been said. But just to recap: responding to the Western Conference Arms Race, the Suns gave up Shawn Marion and his potential cap-freeing opt-out for Shaquille O'Neal and his potential cap-killing $20 million contract next year. The hope (read: realigning of philosophical differences) from both Steve Kerr and Mike D'Antoni was that Shaq would provide defense and turn Amare Stoudemire into a freak of nature. The second happened, and the Suns actually played well.

How They Got to the Dance: By closing out the season 15-5. Bear in mind that this was immediately after the pro-Shaq trade folks had jumped off the bandwagon and well after the haters had gotten their public laughs in. Which is why their matchup against the Spurs seemed like the greatest first round set of all time. The Suns were better down the stretch than we will remember, folks.

The Mike D'Antoni Might-Get-Fired Saga Will Drag on Into the Weekend

If that headline seems negative, it's only because I think that if Steve Kerr doesn't plan on keeping Mike D'Antoni as head coach of the Phoenix Suns -- and that's t he way I'm leaning right now -- then why lead him on? On the other hand, he's already gotten D'Antoni to wave his hand and claim the Shaquille O'Neal trade, so with the Daddy on the hook for another $20 million next year, maybe he wants a scapegoat.

Or maybe Steve Kerr isn't evil and I'm just being paranoid. But he's admitted -- and it's obvious -- that he and D'Antoni have significantly different philosophical approaches to winning in the NBA. Which may be why the two of them and Managing Partner Robert Sarver are having a little get-together this weekend. Of course, before they sit down and talk, they had to clear up the rampant rumors that D'Antoni was already out in Phoenix.
'There's no truth to that,' Kerr said. 'I asked Mike when the story came out, and he denied it. Mike's our coach and has done a great job for four years.'

Kerr, D'Antoni and Sarver will meet by the weekend after taking some time for emotional separation from Tuesday's first-round playoff elimination at San Antonio. 'We'll make a decision, and hopefully we go on and get this team over the top,' said D'Antoni, who has guided the winningest four-year run in team history.

Asked if he wanted to return as Phoenix's coach, D'Antoni evaded the question, saying, 'We'll sit down and talk and evaluate everything and see where we are.'
There's the other twist. Maybe D'Antoni wants out. Would it be that shocking to see an architect walk away from a project early because the guy in charge of buying supplies decided to go a different direction? Of course not.

The Rotation: Fixing the NBA's Draft Lottery System, Because It's Clearly Broken


The Rotation is a weekly study on the NBA by one of our All-Star voices. In rotation this week is Brett Edwards.

The Draft Lottery is a convoluted system put in place so that the teams finishing with the worst records in the league don't automatically receive the top picks in the draft (see: the madness of the 2007 lottery). But the lottery is still weighted according to record, meaning it's still to a team's benefit to tank their remaining games once a playoff spot is out of the question. Bad, bad, and more bad.

Take the Miami Heat, for example -- the way they have treated the end of the regular season has been an absolute embarrassment. After compiling the league's worst record and trading away Shaquille O'Neal, the team only played Dwyane Wade 11 more times before shutting him down for the season. More recently, they have also shelved Shawn Marion, whose injuries would probably not have been season-ending if the Heat were still in contention for the playoffs.

Combine all of this with the fact that the team is gleefully auditioning players from the D-League while their head coach skips out to catch some NCAA Tournament action, and one can only come to this very obvious conclusion: the Heat have long ago stopped trying to compete.

And you know what? I can't blame them, because it's not their fault. They're simply working within a system that rewards teams with no playoff aspirations for losing as many games as possible. The system that the NBA uses to hand out draft picks is broken, people. Continue reading for some interesting ways that it can be fixed.

Shocking: Shawn Marion Done for the Year

Shawn MarionThe Miami Heat announced today that Shawn Marion will miss the rest of the season while undergoing shockwave treatments on his left foot for a persistent case of draft-lotteriitis plantar fasciitis. Good thing the Suns traded him, huh? It sure would be a shame if Marion would have missed a playoff run with this injury ...

... unless, of course, you're like me and think that there's no way Marion would be sitting if the Heat were in a playoff race. I'm not saying the Heat haven't suffered a frustrating run of legitimate injuries this year, but it's a little ridiculous that as the end of the season approaches every single player with a shred of name value is being shut down for the year.

Also, I'm admittedly biased by my own medical ignorance -- I'd feel differently if Marion were undergoing good ol' fashioned surgery, but "shockwave treatment?" For real? The weird thing is that the official reason for Marion's absence the last dozen games or so has been back spasms. The least the team can do is get their stories straight before mailing it in.

So now the question becomes: have we seen the last of Marion in a Heat jersey? He has the right to opt out of his current contract, but that'd entail leaving $17.1 million on the table. That's more than he can expect to get for a single season on the open market, though the trade off would be gaining long-term security. As bad as the Heat are now, they might be back in the thick of things in the East with Marion, a healthy Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose/Michael Beasley/whomever they draft.

Did Miami Forget to Play the Second Half?

TJ Ford and Chris QuinnAlternate title: "Where Chris Quinn playing 48 minutes happens."

Technically speaking, the Raptors 96-54 win over the Heat last night will go down as an official NBA game, but there should be some kind of star next to it in the history books. Let's face it, the Heat aren't even trying to field a competitive team anymore. Pat Riley had just seven players dressed last night, including maybe two (Ricky Davis and Mark Blount) who even hard-core NBA fans could reasonably be expected to pick out of a lineup.

And guess what? It's only going to get worse: Udonis Haslem will undergo season-ending ankle surgery this Friday. Starting in his place last night was Earl Barron, who shot 1-10 from the field in 34 minutes. Replacing Dwyane Wade, who's already been pardoned from participating in this train wreck the rest of the year was Daequan Cook, who shot just 3-19. Not surprisingly, the team's 54 points on Wednesday marked a franchise low, as did their .256 field-goal percentage.

Shawn Marion ("sore back") and Jason Williams ("jammed thumb") also sat out with minor ailments -- what's the over/under on them being ruled out for the year? I'm going with five games.

The "good" news is that the NBA has awarded the Heat a waiver to sign a 16th player, which only means they'll be giving one more unrecognizable face a 10-day contract. That might make practice more competitive, but it'll do nothing for the actual game.